In any given year, there are perhaps 15 movies that can even be seriously entertained in a Best Picture conversation, so with the combination of a potential 10 Oscar nominees under the new rules and the weeks of preliminary awards, Top 10 Lists, predictions and speculations that occupy the weeks preceding the announcement, the unveiling of the actual nominees can feel somewhat anticlimactic. Nevertheless, there always seem to be surprises, and this year’s list (all the nominees are HERE) proved it to be an excellent day for LINCOLN and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, and a shockingly not-great one for ZERO DARK THIRTY and ARGO.
The key to the morning turned out to be Best Director, so let’s start there:
BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke, “AMOUR”
Ang Lee, “LIFE OF PI”
David O. Russell, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
Steven Spielberg, “LINCOLN”
Benh Zeitlin, “BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD”
There were plenty of omissions there, including Quentin Tarantino and Tom Hooper, but the absolutely sure things that turned out not to be were Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow. Both received Directors Guild nominations, and both delivered films that were very much identified with their directors even more than their ensemble casts (and in Affleck’s case, there was the additional feel-good story of his comeback behind the camera), yet neither received the nod, for reasons that will no doubt be theorized about for the near future. Did Bigelow bear the brunt of the torture issue that’s dogged Zero Dark Thirty? Is Affleck still considered a lightweight? Or were they just edged out by films the Directors wing of the Academy (a smaller group than the DGA, which includes Assistant Directors, etc) preferred? In any case, this puts a huge obstacle in the path of either Zero or Argo to win Best Picture, since the last time a film won Picture without its director even being nominated was 1989 and Driving Miss Daisy. Right now, this award seems to be headed toward Steven Spielberg.
BEST PICTURE
AMOUR
ARGO
BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD
DJANGO UNCHAINED
LES MISERABLES
LIFE OF PI
LINCOLN
SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK
ZERO DARK THIRTY
Lincoln picked up the most nominations with 12, and since Spielberg was one of the chosen directors, it has to be considered the strong favorite at this point. Life of Pi had 11 nominations, but still seems in the second rank of nominees with no named actors, although Fox could decide to push hard to change that. The one not to overlook is Silver Linings Playbook, which has “only” 8 nominations but is included in every one of the major categories (Picture, Director, Screenplay and all 4 acting categories), and for which we can expect Harvey Weinstein to do what Harvey Weinstein has done triumphantly over his entire Oscar-season career.
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “LINCOLN”
Hugh Jackman, “LES MISERABLES”
Joaquin Phoenix, “THE MASTER”
Denzel Washington, “FLIGHT”
The only moderate surprise is that Phoenix supplanted John Hawkes in the not-gonna-win-anyway indie movie slot. Day-Lewis was the big favorite going in, and he still is.
BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, “ZERO DARK THIRTY”
Jennifer Lawrence, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
Emmanuelle Riva, “AMOUR”
Quevenzhane Wallis, “BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD”
Naomi Watts, “THE IMPOSSIBLE”
Despite the human interest stories related to Riva (the oldest Best Actress nominee ever) and Wallis (the youngest), this is likely to boil down to Chastain vs. Lawrence. Chastain seemed to have the edge because Zero Dark Thirty was the heavier and more dramatic film, but with the Academy’s love for Silver Linings Playbook and Harvey Weinstein behind her, Lawrence might be able to pull off the victory. The surprising exclusion here: Marion Cotillard, who’s brilliant in Rust and Bone, but whose prestige slot was probably taken by Riva.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, “ARGO”
Robert DeNiro, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “THE MASTER”
Tommy Lee Jones, “LINCOLN”
Christoph Waltz, “DJANGO UNCHAINED”
No surprises here. The race seems to be set up between DeNiro and Jones, especially since Waltz (whose role is by far the largest, arguably a co-lead) so recently won for another Tarantino movie, and Hoffman’s film only won acting nominations.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “THE MASTER”
Sally Field, “LINCOLN”
Anne Hathaway, “LES MISERABLES”
Helen Hunt, “THE SESSIONS”
Jacki Weaver, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
Hathaway’s category to lose, especially since it seems like this award will be the consolation prize for Les Miz. However, the liked-really-liked Field shouldn’t be forgotten.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, “MOONRISE KINGDOM”
Mark Boal, “ZERO DARK THIRTY”
Michael Haneke, “AMOUR”
John Gatins, “FLIGHT”
Quentin Tarantino, “DJANGO UNCHAINED”
Since both Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook are adaptations, this category is fairly open, although it should settle into a race between Boal and Haneke, with Tarantino having a chance to sneak through.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, “BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD”
Tony Kushner, “LINCOLN”
David Magee, “LIFE OF PI”
David O. Russell, “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK”
Chris Terrio, “ARGO”
Another Lincoln/Silver Linings battleground, but Lincoln should have the better of it here, since Kushner brings his Pulitzer-prize winning prestige to the category and many feel that he was as much the auteur of this particular film as Spielberg.
A few other notes: ANNA KARENINA and SKYFALL both cleaned up in technical categories, but were unable to crack any of the big ones, and the oddity nomination of the day (albeit a very convenient one for the Oscar telecast) was a Best Song nod for TED and its co-writer, Oscar host Seth MacFarlane.
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