With the announcement of the Oscar nominations today, Lincoln only became more of a favorite by London oddsmakers (moving from a payout of about $1.80 on a $1 bet last week to about $1.40 today). The odds got a bit longer for Les Miserables and Argo, but Zero Dark Thirty had the biggest swing (from a payout of about $5.50 last week to around $10 today). Of course, a big reason for this is Kathryn Bigelow not being nominated for Best Director, as Mitch Salem points out in his nominations round-up. Steven Spielberg is now the overwhelming favorite for Best Director.
| OSCAR WINNINGS (Payout on $1 Bet) | ||||
| Jan 10 | Jan 3 | |||
| BEST PICTURE | Low | High | Low | High |
| Lincoln | 1.36 | 1.44 | 1.73 | 1.91 |
| Les Miserables | 5 | 7 | 3.25 | 5 |
| Argo | 6 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Zero Dark Thirty | 7 | 13 | 5 | 6 |
| Life of Pi | 13 | 26 | 17 | 21 |
| Silver Linings Playbook | 17 | 26 | 17 | 26 |
| Amour | 34 | 67 | — | — |
| Django Unchained | 51 | 101 | — | — |
| Beasts of the Southern Wild | 67 | 101 | — | — |
| BEST DIRECTOR | Low | High | Low | High |
| Steven Spielberg/ Lincoln | 1.20 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Ang Lee/ Life of Pi | 5 | 7 | 11 | 21 |
| Michael Haneke/ Amour | 6 | 13 | — | — |
| David O Russell/ Silver Linings Playbook | 11 | 15 | 26 | 34 |
| Benh Zeitlin/ Beasts of the Southern Wild | 21 | 41 | — | — |
| Ben Affleck/ Argo | SBA | 3 | 4 | |
| Kathryn Bigelow/ Zero Dark Thirty | SBA | 3.50 | 4 | |
| Tom Hooper/ Les Miserables | SBA | 7 | 9 | |
| courtesy: oddschecker.com as of today immediately following the Oscar nominations announcement and the week beforeNote: SBA=Snubbed By the Academy | ||||
The odds have not changed much for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, as there were few surprises in these categories. Daniel Day-Lewis remains the favorite, an even bigger shoo-in than he was last week. Tommy Lee Jones and Philip Seymour Hoffman remain the two favorites for Supporting Actor, with Jones gaining ever so much ground on Hoffman since last week.
| Jan 10 | Jan 3 | |||
| BEST ACTOR | Low | High | Low | High |
| Daniel Day-Lewis/ Lincoln | 1.10 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Hugh Jackman/ Les Miserables | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| Denzel Washington/ Flight | 13 | 15 | 6 | 10 |
| Joaquin Phoenix/ The Master | 11 | 21 | 7 | 17 |
| Bradley Cooper/ Silver Linings Playbook | 17 | 34 | 15 | 26 |
| John Hawkes/ The Sessions | SBA | 12 | 17 | |
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR | Low | High | Low | High |
| Tommy Lee Jones/ Lincoln | 2.00 | 2.38 | 2.20 | 2.75 |
| Philip Seymour Hoffman/ The Master | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.50 |
| Robert DeNiro/ Silver Linings Playbook | 9 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| Alan Arkin/ Argo | 6 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
| Christoph Waltz/ Django Unchained | 11 | 26 | — | — |
| Leonardo DiCaprio/ Django Unchained | — | — | 5 | 7 |
| Russell Crowe/ Les Miserables | — | — | 9 | 21 |
Also very little change in the Actress categories. Anne Hathaway a clear favorite in Supporting, while Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are the main combatants for Actress.
| Jan 10 | Jan 3 | |||
| BEST ACTRESS | Low | High | Low | High |
| Jennifer Lawrence/ Silver Linings Playbook | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.57 |
| Jessica Chastain/ Zero Dark Thirty | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 3.25 |
| Emannuelle Riva/ Amour | 8 | 15 | 9 | 17 |
| Naomi Watts/ The Impossible | 17 | 21 | — | — |
| Quvenzhane Wallis/ Beasts of the Southern Wild | 21 | 34 | 13 | 26 |
| Sally Field/ Lincoln | — | — | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Anne Hathaway/ Les Miserables | — | — | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS | Low | High | Low | High |
| Anne Hathaway/ Les Miserables | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.17 |
| Sally Field/ Lincoln | 10 | 13 | 9 | 10 |
| Helen Hunt/ The Sessions | 10 | 15 | 9 | 10 |
| Amy Adams/ The Master | 15 | 21 | 11 | 17 |
| Jacki Weaver/ Silver Linings Playbook | 34 | 51 | 34 | 34 |
| Nicole Kidman/ The Paperboy | — | — | 26 | 26 |
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