Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #2 of 2013 is on pace for $124 million, identical to last weekend and up slightly from the same weekend the last few years. The three wide-release films this weekend performed pretty much as forecast Wednesday, while Lincoln is the big surprise among the holdovers thanks to the Oscar nominations, headed for $6.5 million in its 9th weekend (above our $4.5 million forecast and miles ahead of the $300,000 average 9th wide-release weekend).
Expanding to 2,937 theaters, Zero Dark Thirty grossed $9.0 million Friday and is on track for a $26 million weekend (a bit stronger than the $24.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is averaging a solid $8,850 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 average first weekend for all wide-release films the last two years). If the weekend estimate holds, Zero Dark Thirty would total about $31.5 million through Sunday and headed for $95 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,103 theaters, Gangster Squad grossed $6.6 million Friday and is on track for an $18.7 million weekend (a touch stronger than the $17.2 million forecast). The film is averaging an okay $6,000 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is a soft 33% positive at RottenTomatoes (usually an indicator of weak playability to come). Gangster Squad is on track for a $55 million total domestic gross.
Opening at 2,160 theaters, A Haunted House grossed $6.7 million Friday and is on track for a $17.5 million weekend (also stronger than the $15.2 million forecast). The film is averaging a solid $8,100 per theater for the weekend, but critical sentiment is a terrible 10% positive. A Haunted House is headed for $45 million total domestic.
| Weekend 2: January 11-13, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Zero Dark Thirty | Sony | [24.2] | 26.0 | 9.0 | 95 | |
| Gangster Squad | WB | [17.2] | 18.7 | 6.6 | 55 | |
| A Haunted House | OpenRoad | [15.2] | 17.5 | 6.7 | 45 | |
| Django Unchained | Weins | [13.8] | 11.7 | 3.4 | 165 | |
| Les Miserables | Uni | [10.3] | 9.5 | 2.8 | 140 | |
| The Hobbit | WB | [9.8] | 9.0 | 2.3 | 300 | |
| Lincoln | DW/Fox/Dis | [4.5] | 6.5 | 1.8 | 175 | |
| Parental Guidance | Fox | [5.9] | 6.3 | 1.7 | 65 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | [4.0] | 5.1 | 1.5 | 50 | |
| Jack Reacher | Par | [4.9] | 5.0 | 1.5 | 85 | |
| Texas Chainsaw 3D | LG | [7.8] | 4.9 | 1.8 | 30 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the average comparable weekend the last four years but up 8% from the same weekend last year (and the 2011, also).
| WEEKEND #2 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $124 | Zero Dark Thirty $26, Gangster Squad $18.7, A Haunted House $17.5 | |
| 2012 | $115 | Contraband $22, Beauty & Beast 3D $18, Joyful Noise $11 | |
| 2011 | $115 | Green Hornet $33, The Dilemma $18 | |
| 2010 | $157 | Book of Eli $33, Lovely Bones $17, Spy Next Door $10 | |
| 2009 | $165 | Paul Blart: Mall Cop $32, My Bloody Valentine $21, Notorious $20 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $138 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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