January 12, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #2 of 2013 is on pace for $124 million, identical to last weekend and up slightly from the same weekend the last few years.  The three wide-release films this weekend performed pretty much as forecast Wednesday, while Lincoln is the big surprise among the holdovers thanks to the Oscar nominations, headed for $6.5 million in its 9th weekend (above our $4.5 million forecast and miles ahead of the $300,000 average 9th wide-release weekend).

Expanding to 2,937 theaters, Zero Dark Thirty grossed $9.0 million Friday and is on track for a $26 million weekend (a bit stronger than the $24.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging a solid $8,850 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 average first weekend for all wide-release films the last two years).  If the weekend estimate holds, Zero Dark Thirty would total about $31.5 million through Sunday and headed for $95 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,103 theaters, Gangster Squad grossed $6.6  million Friday and is on track for an $18.7 million weekend (a touch stronger than the $17.2 million forecast).   The film is averaging an okay $6,000 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is a soft 33% positive at RottenTomatoes (usually an indicator of weak playability to come).  Gangster Squad is on track for a $55 million total domestic gross.

Opening at 2,160 theaters, A Haunted House grossed $6.7 million Friday and is on track for a $17.5 million weekend (also stronger than the $15.2 million forecast).   The film is averaging a solid $8,100 per theater for the weekend, but critical sentiment is a terrible 10% positive.  A Haunted House is headed for $45 million total domestic.

Weekend 2: January 11-13, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Zero Dark Thirty Sony [24.2] 26.0 9.0 95
Gangster Squad WB [17.2] 18.7 6.6 55
A Haunted House OpenRoad [15.2] 17.5 6.7 45
Django Unchained Weins [13.8] 11.7 3.4 165
Les Miserables Uni [10.3] 9.5 2.8 140
The Hobbit WB [9.8] 9.0 2.3 300
Lincoln DW/Fox/Dis [4.5] 6.5 1.8 175
Parental Guidance Fox [5.9] 6.3 1.7 65
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [4.0] 5.1 1.5 50
Jack Reacher Par [4.9] 5.0 1.5 85
Texas Chainsaw 3D LG [7.8] 4.9 1.8 30

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the average comparable weekend the last four years but up 8% from the same weekend last year (and the 2011, also).

 WEEKEND #2 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $124 Zero Dark Thirty $26, Gangster Squad $18.7, A Haunted House $17.5
2012 $115 Contraband $22, Beauty & Beast 3D $18, Joyful Noise $11
2011 $115 Green Hornet $33, The Dilemma $18
2010 $157 Book of Eli $33, Lovely Bones $17, Spy Next Door $10
2009 $165 Paul Blart: Mall Cop $32, My Bloody Valentine $21, Notorious $20
Avg 2009-12 $138

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.