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February 16, 2013
 

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 15 BOX OFFICE REPORT

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #7 of 2013 is not as bad as the last few weeks: $123 million for the top 12 films during the traditional Friday-Sunday period of this holiday weekend (only 4% behind the pace for the same weekend the last few years).        

Opening at 3,552 theaters Thursday (with $8.2 million), A Good Day to Die Hard from 20th Century Fox grossed $7.2 Friday and is on track for a $22.5 million opening weekend (down significantly from the $32.6 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The Bruce Willis action film is averaging $6,600 per theater for the weekend (slightly above $5,333 average first three-day weekend for all wide-release films the last two years).  Critics are not enthusiastic: 17% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  The 5th Die Hard installment should finish with $74 million total domestic (nowhere near the $134.5 million for Die Hard with a Vengeance, the last Die Hard film in June 2007).

Opening at 3,223 theaters Thursday (with $8.8 million), Safe Haven from Relativity grossed $7.1 million Friday and is on track for a $22 million opening Friday-Sunday weekend (slightly above the $19.6 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging $6,800 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is a very cool 13% positive.  Safe Haven is headed for $69 million total domestic. 

Opening at 3,228 theaters Friday, Escape from Planet Earth from Weinstein Company opened with $3.7 million Friday and is on track for $15 million weekend (up a bit from the $13.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging $4,600 per theater for the weekend, while early critical sentiment is a weak 25% positive.  Escape is headed for $64 million total domestic, fairly good playability given its animated genre.

Opening at 2,950 theaters Thursday (with $2.5 million), Beautiful Creatures from Warner Brothers grossed $2.3 million Friday and is on track for a $7.8 million weekend (below the $11.6 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a poor $2,600 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is a mediocre 45% positive.  Beautiful Creatures is headed for $20 million total domestic.

Weekend 7: February 15-17, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
A Good Day to Die Hard Fox [32.6] 23.5 7.22 74
Identity Thief Uni [17.5] 22.5 6.50 126
Safe Haven Rel [19.6] 22.0 7.15 69
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [13.5] 15.0  3.70 64
Warm Bodies Summit [6.2] 9.0  2.60 73
Beautiful Creatures WB [11.6] 7.8 2.31 20
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [5.1] 6.3  1.44 120
Side Effects OpenRoad [5.0] 6.2 38
Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters Par [2.9] 3.4 .871 56
Mama Uni [2.2] 2.7 .750 75

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

 

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $123 million total Friday-Sunday, down an okay 4% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 14% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #7 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $123 Good Day Die Hard $22.5, Safe Haven $22
2012 $143 Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance $22, This Means War $17
2011 $130 Unknown $22, I Am Number Four $19, Big Mommas $16
2010 $122 Shutter Island $41
2009 $120 Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail $41, Fired Up $5
Avg 2009-12 $129

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.