>
Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance opened with $7.0 million Friday for an estimated $20.4 million for the traditional three-day weekend, way below the $27.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. The Nicolas Cage sequel is wheezing toward $6,400 average on 3,174 screens. Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance is headed for a preliminary $54 million total domestic.
This Means War opened with $5.6 million Friday for $16.6 million Friday-Sunday, hitting the lackluster $16.5 million prediction. The latest from Reese Witherspoon weekend average should be around $5,200 at 3,189 theaters. This Means War is headed for a preliminary $44 million domestic.
The Secret World of Arrietty opened with $1.7 million Friday on track for $6.6 million this weekend, above the very modest $4.2 million forecast. Arrietty is on track for $25 million total domestic.
The Vow‘s second Friday edged Ghost Rider 2‘s opening night (finishing #1 with $7.4 million). A second weekend is more evenly distributed across all the days than an opening weekend (which is more skewed toward Friday) — so The Vow will cruise to #1 this weekend (-40% from the opening weekend), while Safe House should finish second (-41%), pushing Nic Cage to #3. We have upgraded the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate for The Vow to $150 million, Safe House to $138 million and Journey 2 The Mysterious Island up to $100 million. Not surprisingly, Star Wars: Episode 1 Phantom Menace 3D will be down about 67% in its second weekend. The final estimate for this extravaganza of wooden acting, clunky dialogue and digital characters with jaw-dropping ethnic stereotypes is now $45 million domestic.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
The Vow (Sony) [$22.5] $24.9 $ 7.4 $150++
Safe House (Uni) [$21.0] $23.6 $ 6.5 $138+
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony) [$27.0] $20.4 $ 7.0 $ 54
This Means War (Fox) [$16.5] $16.6 $ 5.6 $ 44
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox) [$10.0] $ 7.4 $ 1.9 $ 45-
Secret World Arrietty Dis[$ 4.2] $ 6.6 $ 1.7 $ 25
Chronicle (Fox) [$ 6.8] $ 7.4 $ 2.0 $ 71
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$ 5.2] $ 6.4 $ 1.9 $ 60
The Grey (Open Road) [$ 3.1] $ 3.7 $ 0.9 $ 57
The Descendants (Fox) [$ —] $ 2.8 $ 0.7 $ 85
Big Miracle (Uni) [$ 2.6] $ 2.4 $ 0.5 $ 22
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $141 million total Friday-Sunday, up 9% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 22% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #7
2012 $141 Ghost Rider 2 $20, This Means War $17, Arrietty $6.6
2011 $130 Unknown $22, I Am Number Four $19, Big Mommas 2 $16
2010 $122 Shutter Island $41
2009 $120 Madea Goes to Jail $41, Fired Up $5.5
2008 $ 90 Vantage Point $23, Be Kind Rewind $4
2008-11
Avg $115
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
###
About the Author
