Articles

February 18, 2012
 

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

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The seventh weekend of 2012 is another good one, running ahead of last year and the multi-year average for this weekend.  The Vow should hold on to the top spot, with Safe House a close #2, and Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance opening in third place for the weekend.  This Means War is basically shut out and continues the tough losing streak for Reese Witherspoon.    


Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance opened with $7.0 million Friday for an estimated $20.4 million for the traditional three-day weekend, way below the $27.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The Nicolas Cage sequel is wheezing toward $6,400 average on 3,174 screens.  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance is headed for a preliminary $54 million total domestic. 

This Means War opened with $5.6 million Friday for $16.6 million Friday-Sunday, hitting the lackluster $16.5 million prediction.  The latest from Reese Witherspoon weekend average should be around $5,200 at 3,189 theaters.  This Means War is headed for a preliminary $44 million domestic. 

The Secret World of Arrietty opened with $1.7 million Friday on track for $6.6 million this weekend, above the very modest $4.2 million forecast.  Arrietty is on track for $25 million total domestic.

The Vow‘s second Friday edged Ghost Rider 2‘s opening night (finishing #1 with $7.4 million).  A second weekend is more evenly distributed across all the days than an opening weekend (which is more skewed toward Friday) — so The Vow will cruise to #1 this weekend (-40% from the opening weekend), while Safe House should finish second (-41%), pushing Nic Cage to #3.  We have upgraded the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate for The Vow to $150 million, Safe House to $138 million and Journey 2 The Mysterious Island up to $100 million.  Not surprisingly, Star Wars: Episode 1 Phantom Menace 3D will be down about 67% in its second weekend.  The final estimate for this extravaganza of wooden acting, clunky dialogue and digital characters with jaw-dropping ethnic stereotypes is now $45 million domestic. 

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions

  
February 17-19, 2012    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

The Vow (Sony)           [$22.5]    $24.9   $ 7.4     $150++
Safe House (Uni)         [$21.0]    $23.6   $ 6.5     $138+
Ghost Rider 2 (Sony)     [$27.0]    $20.4   $ 7.0     $ 54
Journey 2 (WB)           [$20.0]    $18.8   $ 4.4     $100+ 
This Means War (Fox)     [$16.5]    $16.6   $ 5.6     $ 44
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox)  [$10.0]    $ 7.4   $ 1.9     $ 45-
Secret World Arrietty Dis[$ 4.2]    $ 6.6   $ 1.7     $ 25
Chronicle (Fox)          [$ 6.8]    $ 7.4   $ 2.0     $ 71
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$ 5.2]    $ 6.4   $ 1.9     $ 60
The Grey (Open Road)     [$ 3.1]    $ 3.7   $ 0.9     $ 57
The Descendants (Fox)    [$ —]    $ 2.8   $ 0.7     $ 85 
Big Miracle (Uni)        [$ 2.6]    $ 2.4   $ 0.5     $ 22


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $141 million total Friday-Sunday, up 9% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 22% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.            

Top 12 Films: Weekend #7

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $141  Ghost Rider 2 $20, This Means War $17, Arrietty $6.6

2011  $130  Unknown $22, I Am Number Four $19, Big Mommas 2 $16
2010  $122  Shutter Island $41
2009  $120  Madea Goes to Jail $41, Fired Up $5.5

2008  $ 90  Vantage Point $23, Be Kind Rewind $4
2008-11
Avg   $115


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.