>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly above the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only). The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $123.5 million for the weekend, up 2% from last year’s weekend but up a strong 25% from the weekend’s average for the past four years. Think Like a Man opened this weekend, headed for $33 million for the first three days and a possible domestic final of $106 million. The Lucky One opened with $22.8 million for the weekend, on its way to $61 million total domestic. The Hunger Games looks like a small 31% decline to $14.5 million in its fifth weekend (the average fifth weekend is only $1.1 million), pushing the estimated final domestic tally to $388 million.
April 20-22 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Think Like a Man (LG) $33.0 $106
The Lucky One (WB) $22.8 $ 61
The Hunger Games (LG) $14.5 -31% $388+
Chimpanzee (Dis) $10.2 $ 31
The Three Stooges (Fox) $ 9.2 -46% $ 51-
The Cabin in the Woods (LG) $ 7.7 -47% $ 47
American Reunion (Uni) $ 5.2 -50% $ 60-
Titanic 3D (Par) $ 5.0 -58% $ 71-
21 Jump Street (Sony) $ 4.6 -30% $141
Mirror Mirror (Rel) $ 4.1 -40% $ 65-
Wrath of the Titans (WB) $ 3.8 -45% $ 85
The Hunger Games looks like an ever smaller 31% decline in its fifth weekend to $14.5 million, now totaling an estimated $357 million through today (its first 35 days). The Hunger Games is now estimated to finish with $388 million domestic, comfortably ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2.
Recent Top Openers and Box Office Track
Opening First Final
Weekend 35 Days Domestic
The Dark Knight $158.4 $471.1 $533.3
Harry Potter and Deathly $169.2 $357.3 $381.0
Hallows Part 2
Spider-Man 3 $151.1 $318.3 $336.5
Twilight Saga: New Moon $142.8 $274.6 $296.6
Twilight Saga: Breaking $138.1 $266.3 $281.3
Dawn Part 1
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $123.3 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year (which was helped by the strong second weekend of Rio) but up 25% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #16
2012 $123 Think Like a Man $33, Lucky One $23, Chimpanzee $10
2011 $121 TP’s Madea’s Big Happy Family $25, Water for
Elephants $17, African Cats $6
2010 $ 90 Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6
2009 $104 Obsessed $28, Fighting $11, Earth $9
2008 $ 80 Big Mama $17, Harold & Kumar Escape $15
2008-11
Avg $ 99
Opening wide next weekend are The Five-Year Engagement from Universal (comedy starring Jason Segel and Emily Blunt), The Pirates! Band of Misfits from Sony (3D animation), Safe from Lionsgate (action starring Jason Statham) and The Raven from Relativity (thriller starring John Cucask and Luke Evans). These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year: Fast Five ($86.2 million opening weekend), Prom ($4.7 million) and Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil ($4.1 million). But the real fun kicks off in two weeks when The Avengers from Disney opens May 4.
Check back later today for our update on international grosses.
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