April 22, 2012


>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly above the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like $123.5 million for the weekend, up 2% from last year’s weekend but up a strong 25% from the weekend’s average for the past four years.  Think Like a Man opened this weekend, headed for $33 million for the first three days and a possible domestic final of $106 million.  The Lucky One opened with $22.8 million for the weekend, on its way to $61 million total domestic.  The Hunger Games looks like a small 31% decline to $14.5 million in its fifth weekend (the average fifth weekend is only $1.1 million), pushing the estimated final domestic tally to $388 million.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Think Like a Man ($106 million), The Lucky One ($61 million) and Chimpanzee ($31 million). 
Second week films:  Three Stooges ($51 million, adjusted down from last week’s estimate), Cabin in the Woods ($47 million, even with last week’s estimate) and Lockout ($13 million, adjusted up slightly).  
Third week films:  American Reunion ($60 million, adjusted down somewhat for the second week in a row) and Titanic 3D ($71 million, adjusted down somewhat from last week). 
Fourth week films: Wrath of the Titans ($85 million, steady versus last week) and Mirror Mirror ($65 million, adjusted down slightly). 
Fifth week:  The Hunger Games ($388 million, adjusted up slightly).

April 20-22                         Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Think Like a Man           (LG)     $33.0             $106
The Lucky One              (WB)     $22.8             $ 61
The Hunger Games           (LG)     $14.5   -31%      $388+
Chimpanzee                (Dis)     $10.2             $ 31
The Three Stooges         (Fox)     $ 9.2   -46%      $ 51-
The Cabin in the Woods     (LG)     $ 7.7   -47%      $ 47
American Reunion          (Uni)     $ 5.2   -50%      $ 60-
Titanic 3D                (Par)     $ 5.0   -58%      $ 71-
21 Jump Street           (Sony)     $ 4.6   -30%      $141
Mirror Mirror             (Rel)     $ 4.1   -40%      $ 65- 
Wrath of the Titans        (WB)     $ 3.8   -45%      $ 85

The Hunger Games looks like an ever smaller 31% decline in its fifth weekend to $14.5 million, now totaling an estimated $357 million through today (its first 35 days).  The Hunger Games is now estimated to finish with $388 million domestic, comfortably ahead of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2.      

Recent Top Openers and Box Office Track

                           Opening     First      Final
                           Weekend    35 Days    Domestic
The Dark Knight             $158.4    $471.1     $533.3

THE HUNGER GAMES            $155.0    $356.9     $388  ESTIMATED

Harry Potter and Deathly    $169.2    $357.3     $381.0
 Hallows Part 2
Spider-Man 3                $151.1    $318.3     $336.5
Twilight Saga: New Moon     $142.8    $274.6     $296.6
Twilight Saga: Breaking     $138.1    $266.3     $281.3
 Dawn Part 1

Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $123.3 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year (which was helped by the strong second weekend of Rio) but up 25% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.  


Top 12 Films: Weekend #16

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $123  Think Like a Man $33, Lucky One $23, Chimpanzee $10

2011  $121  TP’s Madea’s Big Happy Family $25, Water for
             Elephants $17, African Cats $6
2010  $ 90  Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6
2009  $104  Obsessed $28, Fighting $11, Earth $9

2008  $ 80  Big Mama $17, Harold & Kumar Escape $15
Avg   $ 99

Next Weekend            
Opening wide next weekend are The Five-Year Engagement from Universal (comedy starring Jason Segel and Emily Blunt), The Pirates! Band of Misfits from Sony (3D animation), Safe from Lionsgate (action starring Jason Statham) and The Raven from Relativity (thriller starring John Cucask and Luke Evans).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Fast Five ($86.2 million opening weekend), Prom ($4.7 million) and Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil ($4.1 million).  But the real fun kicks off in two weeks when The Avengers from Disney opens May 4.

Check back later today for our update on international grosses.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.