Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #46 of 2014 looks like $135 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up from yesterday’s estimate ($128 million) but still down 29% the norm for this weekend ($191 million) but up (+13%) from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 3,154 theaters, Dumb and Dumber To from Universal grossed $14.2 million Friday and $13.9 million Saturday, now is on track for a $38.1 million opening three-day weekend (now well above our $33.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward $12,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is not encouraging (27% positive overall and an even tougher 15% positive with top critics). Dumb and Dumber To is headed for $116 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,789 theaters, Beyond the Lights from Relativity grossed $2.3 million Friday and $2.6 million Saturday, now on track for a $6.5 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $10.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $3,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very positive (84% positive overall and 85% positive with top critics) but that won’t be enough. Beyond the Lights is headed for $27 million total domestic.
| Weekend 46: November 14-16, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Dumb and Dumber To | Uni | [33.0] | 36.0 | 38.1 | 14.2–13.9 | 116 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | [35.9] | 33.6 | 36.0 | 8.0–16.5 | 210 | |
| Interstellar | Par | [24.4] | 27.9 | 29.2 | 8.3–12.5 | 174 | |
| Beyond the Lights | Rel | [10.0] | 6.4 | 6.5 | 2.3–2.6 | 27 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [4.5] | 4.4 | 4.6 | 1.4–2.1 | 166 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | [3.9] | 3.8 | 4.0 | 1.1–1.8 | 44 | |
| Fury | Sony | [3.6] | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.1–1.7 | 88 | |
| Ouija | Uni | [3.2] | 3.0 | 3.0 | .99–1.4 | 53 | |
| Nightcrawler | OpenRoad | [2.9] | 2.9 | 3.0 | .90–1.3 | 35 | |
| Birdman | FoxS | [2.9] | 2.3 | 2.5 | .69–1.1 | 30 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Big Hero 6 is headed for $36.0 million this weekend (down 36% from last weekend and near our $35.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Big Hero 6 has been adjusted to $210 million.
Interstellar is headed for $29.2 million this weekend (down 39% from last weekend and above our $24.4 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Interstellar has been adjusted to $174 million.
Gone Girl is headed for $4.6 million this weekend (down 26% from last weekend and near our $4.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Gone Girl has been adjusted to $166 million.
St. Vincent is headed for $4.0 million this weekend (down 26% from last weekend and near our $3.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for St. Vincent has been adjusted to $44 million.
Fury is headed for $3.8 million this weekend (down 32% from last weekend and near our $3.6 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Fury has been adjusted to $88 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $135 million total Friday-Sunday, down 29% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 13% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 46 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $135 | Dumb and Dumber To $38.1, Beyond the Lights $6.5 | |
| 2013 | $119 | Best Man Holiday $30.1 | |
| 2012 | $242 | Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 $141.1, Lincoln $21.0 | |
| 2011 | $215 | Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Par 1 $138.1, Happy Feet Two $21.2 | |
| 2010 | $186 | Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows Part 1 $125.0, Next Three Days $6.5 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $191 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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