Weekend #51 of 2014 is looking like $147 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 22% from the norm for this weekend and up 8% from the same weekend last year.
Opening at over 3,875 theaters Wednesday (well above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies from Warner Brothers should average $16,600 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $64.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Including Wednesday and Thursday, the film should total about $110 million through Sunday for the first five days. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, Battle of the Five Armies is averaging a barely above average 60% positive reviews. Battle of the Five Armies is on track for around $259 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $705 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $964 million. This would be slightly below the $1.017 billion worldwide for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (released 12.14.2012 with a $303.0 million domestic total and $714 million overseas total) but near the $958.4 million worldwide for The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (released 12.13.2013 with $258.4 million domestic total and $700.0 million overseas total).
Opening at over 2,700 theaters Friday, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb from 20th Century Fox should average $7,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $27.0 million opening three-day weekend). In early reviews, Night at the Museum is averaging a perfectly mediocre 50% positive reviews. Secret of the Tomb is on track for around $138 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $250 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $388 million. This would be well below the $574.5 million worldwide for Night at the Museum (released 12.22.2006 with a $250.9 million domestic total and $323.6 million overseas total) and slightly below the $413.1 million worldwide for Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (released 5.22.2009 with $177.2 million domestic total and $235.9 million overseas total).
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, Annie from Sony should average $5,800 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening three-day weekend). In early reviews, Annie is averaging a very weak 18% positive reviews. Annie is on track for around $79 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $9 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $88 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Dec 19-21, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | PG13 | 60% | 64.5 | 259 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | PG | 50% | 27.0 | 138 | |
| Annie | Sony | PG | 18% | 17.5 | 79 | |
Exodus: Gods and Kings is now the top holdover, the only one headed for over $10 million this weekend (and just barely so). Not a lot of support on the bench.
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RETURNING FILMS Dec 19-21, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Exodus: Gods and Kings | Fox | -56% | 10.5 | 102 | |
| Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | -46% | 6.9 | 320 | |
| Top Five | Par | -38% | 4.3 | 65 | |
| Penguins of Madagascar | Fox | -48% | 3.8 | 75 | |
| Wild | Fox S | +135% | 3.6 | 55 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | -43% | 3.5 | 205 | |
| Interstellar | Par | -50% | 2.8 | 189 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $121 million total, ranking 30th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $137 million (while 2012 was $100 million, 2011 was $114 million and 2010 was $132 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $147 million, up 22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 8% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
12.20.2013
American Hustle Sony R Christian Bale Bradley Cooper
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $124 Actual: $150
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $101
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Par PG13 Will Ferrell Paul Rudd
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $148 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46
Walking with Dinosaurs Fox PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $36
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $90
Saving Mr Banks Dis PG13 Emma Thompson Tom Hanks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $85 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $29
12.21.2012
Jack Reacher Par PG13 Tom Cruise Rosamund Pike
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $89 Actual: $80
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $136
This Is 40 Uni R Paul Rudd Leslie Mann
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $76 Actual: $67
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
The Guilt Trip Par R Seth Rogen Barbra Streisand
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Monsters, Inc. 3D Dis G
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away 3D Par PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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