Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #28 of 2015 looks like $206 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, above the norm for this weekend and way above last year’s weak weekend.
Opening at 4,301 theaters Friday, Minions from Universal is on track for a $117.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $108.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a terrific $27,200 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre to soft (55% positive overall and 33% positive with top critics). Minions is headed for $315 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,720 theaters Friday, The Gallows from Warner Brothers is on track for a $10.2 million opening three-day weekend (a touch below our $11.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a below average $3,750 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very weak (13% positive overall and 11% positive with top critics). The Gallows is headed for $18 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,353 theaters Friday, Self/Less from Focus is on track for a $5.1 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $6.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward an awful $2,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak especially with top critics (22% positive overall and 4% positive with top critics). Self/Less is headed for $8 million total domestic.
| Weekend 28: July 10-12, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Minions | Uni | [108.0] | 117.0 | 46.2 | 315 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | [17.1] | 18.3 | 5.30 | 659 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | [15.4] | 17.7 | 5.36 | 353 | |
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | [11.8] | 13.2 | 4.05 | 100 | |
| The Gallows | WB | [11.5] | 10.2 | 4.51 | 18 | |
| Magic Mike XXL | WB | [6.9] | 9.5 | 3.64 | 77 | |
| Self/Less | Foc | [6.0] | 5.1 | 1.96 | 8 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | [5.0] | 5.5 | 1.80 | 85 | |
| Max | WB | [3.5] | 3.5 | 1.11 | 44 | |
| Spy | Fox | [3.5] | 3.1 | n/a | 116 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Jurassic World is headed for $18.3 million this weekend (down -37% from last weekend and slightly above our $17.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $659 million.
Inside Out is headed for $17.7 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and somewhat above our $15.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $353 million.
Terminator: Genisys is headed for $13.2 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and also above our $11.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $100 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $206 million total Friday-Sunday, up +12% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up an enormous +48% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 28 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $206 | Minions $117.0, The Gallows $10.2, Self/Less $5.1 | |
| 2014 | $139 | Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $72.6, Begin Again $2.8 | |
| 2013 | $188 | Grown Ups 2 $41.5, Pacific Rim $37.3 | |
| 2012 | $154 | Ice Age: Continental Drift $46.6 | |
| 2011 | $252 | Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $169.2 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $183 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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