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July 11, 2015
 

FRIDAY 7.10.2015 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #28 of 2015 looks like $206 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, above the norm for this weekend and way above last year’s weak weekend.

Opening at 4,301 theaters Friday, Minions from Universal is on track for a $117.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $108.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a terrific $27,200 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre to soft (55% positive overall and 33% positive with top critics). Minions is headed for $315 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,720 theaters Friday, The Gallows from Warner Brothers is on track for a $10.2 million opening three-day weekend (a touch below our $11.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a below average $3,750 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very weak (13% positive overall and 11% positive with top critics). The Gallows is headed for $18 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,353 theaters Friday, Self/Less from Focus is on track for a $5.1 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $6.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward an awful $2,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak especially with top critics (22% positive overall and 4% positive with top critics). Self/Less is headed for $8 million total domestic.

Weekend 28: July 10-12, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Minions Uni [108.0] 117.0 46.2 315
Jurassic World Uni [17.1] 18.3 5.30 659
Inside Out Dis [15.4] 17.7 5.36 353
Terminator: Genisys Par [11.8] 13.2 4.05 100
The Gallows WB [11.5] 10.2 4.51 18
Magic Mike XXL WB [6.9] 9.5 3.64 77
Self/Less Foc [6.0] 5.1 1.96 8
Ted 2 Uni [5.0] 5.5 1.80 85
Max WB [3.5] 3.5 1.11 44
Spy Fox [3.5] 3.1 n/a 116

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Jurassic World is headed for $18.3 million this weekend (down -37% from last weekend and slightly above our $17.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $659 million.

Inside Out is headed for $17.7 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and somewhat above our $15.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $353 million.

Terminator: Genisys is headed for $13.2 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and also above our $11.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $100 million.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $206 million total Friday-Sunday, up +12% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up an enormous +48% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 28 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $206 Minions $117.0, The Gallows $10.2, Self/Less $5.1
2014 $139 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $72.6, Begin Again $2.8
2013 $188 Grown Ups 2 $41.5, Pacific Rim $37.3
2012 $154 Ice Age: Continental Drift $46.6
2011 $252 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $169.2
Avg 2011-14 $183

Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.