Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #35 of 2015 now looks like $69 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well below the norm for this weekend and reaching into record low territory (see track below).
Opening at 1,135 theaters Friday, War Room from Sony is on track for a $11.0 million opening three-day weekend (double our $5.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a robust $9,700 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is not supportive (18% positive overall and 20% positive with top critics). War Room is headed for $27 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,355 theaters Wednesday, No Escape from Weinstein Company is now on track for a $8.3 million opening three-day weekend (above our $7.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a very low $2,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (40% positive overall and 35% positive with top critics). No Escape is headed for $19 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,333 theaters Friday, We Are Your Friends from Warner Brothers is on track for a $1.8 million opening three-day weekend (far below our $9.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a catastrophic $772 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is also mediocre (42% positive overall and 44% positive with top critics). We Are Your Friends is headed for $3 million total domestic.
Only seven other films have opened at so many theaters and averaged less than a thousand bucks for the weekend at each theater. We Are Your Friends is now the 3rd Warner Brothers film on this short list of very widespread humiliation.
Movies That Have Opened At Over 2,000 Theaters in North America and Averaged Less Than $1,000 Per Theater for the Opening Weekend
- Oogieloves In the BIG Balloon Adventure (Kenn Viselman Presents) $206 average 2,160 theaters $443,901 weekend 8.29-31.2012
- Delgo (Freestyle) $237 average 2,160 theaters $511,920 weekend 12.12-14.2008
- We Are Your Friends (Warner Bros) $772 average 2,333 theaters $1,800,00 est. weekend 8.28-30.2015
- Major League: Back to the Minors (Warner Bros) $899 average 2,322 theaters $2,087,011 weekend 4.17-19.1998
- The Real Cancun (New Line) $932 average 2,261 theaters $2,108,796 weekend 4.25-27.2003
- The Adventures of Pluto Nash (Warner Bros) $940 average 2,320 theaters $2,182,900 weekend 8.16-18.2002
- The Rocker (Fox) $947 average 2,784 theaters $2,636,048 weekend 8.20-22.2008
- P2 (Summit) $977 average 2,131 theaters $2,083,398 weekend 11.9-11.2007
| Weekend 35: August 28-30, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | [15.3] | 12.3 | 13.2 | 3.9/ 5.5 | 170 | |
| War Room | Sony | [5.5] | 10.5 | 11.0 | 4.0/ 3.9 | 27 | |
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [8.2] | 7.5 | 8.3 | 2.2/ 3.7 | 194 | |
| No Escape | Weins | [7.0] | 7.2 | 8.3 | 2.4/ 3.4 | 19 | |
| Sinister 2 | Foc | [3.8] | 4.3 | 4.7 | 1.4/ 2.0 | 22 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | [4.2] | 4.2 | 4.4 | 1.2/ 2.0 | 46 | |
| Hitman: Agent 47 | Fox | [3.6] | 3.6 | 3.9 | 1.1/ 1.7 | 20 | |
| The Gift | STX | [2.8] | 2.8 | 3.1 | .85/ 1.4 | 44 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | [—] | — | 3.1 | .79/ 1.4 | 651 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | [2.9] | 2.7 | 3.1 | .78/ 1.4 | 178 | |
| Minions | Uni | [—] | 2.3 | 2.9 | .67/ 1.3 | 331 | |
| American Ultra | LG | [—] | 2.5 | 2.8 | .81/ 1.2 | 16 | |
| We Are Your Friends | WB | [9.0] | 1.9 | 1.8 | .73/ .62 | 3 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Straight Outta Compton is headed for $13.2 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and somewhat below our $15.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $170 million.
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $8.3 million this weekend (down -28% from last weekend and near our $8.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $194 million.
Sinister 2 is headed for $4.7 million this weekend (down -56% from last weekend and somewhat above our $3.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $22 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a dreadful $69 million total Friday-Sunday, down -21% from the average for the comparable weekend and down -22% from the same weekend last year. This is a little better than it looked yesterday ($63 million) but still should be a record low for this calendar weekend and much more like a Labor Day weekend (which has averaged $59 million in recent years).
| WEEKEND 35 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $69 | War Room $11.0, No Escape $8.3, We Are Your Friends $1.8 | |
| 2014 | $88 | As Above/So Below $8.6, The November Man $7.9 | |
| 2013 | $93 | One Direction: This Is Us $15.8, Instructions Not Included $7.8, Getaway $4.5 | |
| 2012 | $86 | The Possession $17.7, Lawless $10.0, Oogieloves…Big Balloon Adventure $0.4 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $87 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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