WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS October 14-16

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This weekend looks to be very weak.  The projected total volume of $85 million would be down 29% versus the same weekend last year (when Jackass 3-D opened to a staggering $50 million) and down 18% from the average comparable weekend the last four years.  It’s lazy remake weekend starting Friday, with two of the three openers retreads.  Footloose will battle the second weekend of Real Steel for the top spot of a surprisingly soft weekend. 

At about 2,900 theaters, The Thing from Universal should average a scary $4,000 per theater (for $12 million this weekend).  The sci-fi/horror remake has a poor 35% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far.  This movie is probably headed for around $27 million domestically. 

At only about 2,200 theaters, The Big Year from Fox should average a weak $3,400 per theater (for $7.5 million this weekend).  The Jack Black-Steve Martin comedy has no reviews at RottenTomatoes currently.  The dreaded not previewed for critics situation.  This movie is probably headed for around $18 million domestically. 

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
October 14-16                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

Footloose               Par  PG13  73%      $18.0     $ 57 
The Thing               Uni  R     35%      $12.0     $ 27
The Big Year            Fox  PG    n/a      $ 7.5     $ 18

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The second weekend of Real Steel should be the only significant player this weekend among the holdovers.  Look for the futuristic robots to battle the singing and dancing of Footloose for the top spot.  But whoever wins will be king of a pretty small hill.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
October 14-16                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Real Steel            Sony        -41%      $16.0     $ 81 
Ides of March       DW/DIS        -38%      $ 6.5     $ 38
Dolphin Tale            WB        -29%      $ 6.5     $ 74
Moneyball             Sony        -33%      $ 5.0     $ 71 
50/50               Summit        -35%      $ 3.7     $ 35 
Courageous            Sony        -38%      $ 3.0     $ 26
Lion King 3D           Dis        -43%      $ 2.6     $104
Dream House            Uni        -49%      $ 2.3     $ 18

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $103 million total, ranking 37th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was $120 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $128 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $85 million, down a whopping 29% from this weekend last year and down 18% from the four-year average for this weekend.       

This Weekend Last Two Years

10/15/10