OPENINGS: OUT OF THE FURNACE (Relativity) will do nothing to change the reputation of the first weekend in December as a terrible time to open a new movie. Even in a more robust weekend, the grim quasi-art film, quasi-action thriller would have had a hard time (and the presence of Christian Bale didn’t help at all, since he has little box office value without the Bat-Cape). With a $1.9M Friday, it may struggle to reach even $5.5M for the weekend. The budget was relatively low ($22-27M) and marketing expenses were moderate, but considering the mixed reviews and lack of any awards steam, there’s little chance of the drama breaking out for any profit.
HOLDOVERS: THE HUNGER GAMES: CATCHING FIRE (Lionsgate) took Friday over FROZEN (Disney), $7.7M to $6.8M, but Frozen is likely to zoom with Saturday matinees to a $28M weekend, while Catching Fire will probably be $1-2M behind. Don’t weep for Katniss Everdeen, though: by the end of the weekend, Catching Fire should be well over $600M worldwide, getting close to the $691M total for Hunger Games and sure to pass it before the holiday season is over. (See Mitch Metcalf’s Friday Box-Office Report for a detailed analysis of Catching Fire‘s performance in the context of other blockbuster openings.) Frozen, for its part, is running more than 35% ahead of where Tangled was at this point in its run, and seems headed for at least $250M in the US.
Everything else was far back, topped by a $1.3M Friday for THOR: THE DARK WORLD (Disney), creeping toward $200M in the US. DELIVERY MAN (DreamWorks/isney) continues to hold well at its very low level with a $1.2M Friday, but still won’t get much higher than $30M when it’s done.
There was no spark among the awards hopefuls in semi-wide release. THE BOOK THIEF (20th) had a $755K Friday and perhaps a $2K per-theatre average for the weekend at 1316, around the same average as DALLAS BUYERS CLUB (Focus/Universal) will have at 734. PHILOMENA (Weinstein), at 835, should end the weekend with around a $2500 per-theatre average. 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Fox Searchlight) may have a weekend average at 1082 that barely exceeds $1000, and it’s going to have a hard time holding onto theatres during the holiday season. Also, it appears that the attempt to boost awards-season consciousness of THE BUTLER (Weinstein) by expanding it back to 1000 theatres failed badly, since it didn’t even hit Friday’s Top 10.
LIMITED RELEASE: The Coen Brothers’ INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS (CBS) rode its filmmakers’ fame and rapturous reviews (94% on Rotten Tomatoes) to a big start, with $31K on Friday at each of its 4 NY/LA theatres and a weekend average of as much as $100K possible. But this isn’t one of the Coens’ more crowdpleasing efforts, and the trick will be to sustain its success once it moves past the coasts.
NEXT WEEKEND: There’s no question about what will be #1 next week, as THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG (Warner Bros/MGM) roars its fiery breath at the box office. The first Hobbit opened with $84.6M, but Smaug is getting notably better reviews (including here), so that may not be its ceiling. Also arriving is Tyler Perry’s A MADEA CHRISTMAS (Lionsgate). Two major awards contenders begin with limited releases: AMERICAN HUSTLE (Sony) and SAVING MR. BANKS (Disney).
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