Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #49 of 2013 looks like $87 million for the top 12 films from Friday-Sunday, right on target for the usually slow post-Thanksgiving weekend.
Opening at 2,101 theaters Friday, Out of the Furnace from Relativity grossed $1.9 million Friday and is on track for a $5.5 million opening weekend (below the already bearish $6.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $2,600 per theater for the weekend (half the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is mixed (52% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 59% positive with top critics). Out of the Furnace is headed for maybe $15 million total domestic.
Frozen 3D and Hunger Games: Catching Fire are the only films generating significant business this weekend. Frozen‘s total domestic gross has been dropped to $205 million, and more detail on the track for Catching Fire can be found below.
Inside Llewyn Davis from CBS Films and the Coen Brothers opened with $123,000 Friday at a very limited four theaters. That’s an excellent $30,750 per theater average for one day and puts its on a pace for $85,000 per theater for the weekend.
| Weekend 49: December 6-8, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Frozen 3D | Dis | [32.6] | 29.0 | 6.8 | 205 | |
| Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | [31.6] | 27.5 | 7.7 | 420 | |
| Out of the Furnace | Rel | [6.5] | 5.5 | 1.9 | 15 | |
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | [5.2] | 4.7 | 1.3 | 205 | |
| Delivery Man | Dis | [3.4] | 3.8 | 1.2 | 34 | |
| Homefront | ORF | [3.2] | 3.3 | 1.0 | 21 | |
| The Book Thief | Fox | [2.8] | 2.8 | .76 | 18 | |
| Best Man Holiday | Uni | [4.3] | 2.7 | .79 | 73 | |
| Philomena | Weins | [2.2] | 2.4 | .62 | 17 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Catching Fire Durability
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire has fallen back to a more normal pace when compared to other hit films in the last three years (those that started with over $100 million through the first weekend). Through this coming Sunday, Catching Fire looks like it will total $41 million over the past week (a very typical number compared to other 12 recent hit films) and that $41 million is down -74% from the opening first few days (again, a very average number number for these films). The total domestic for Hunger Games has been downgraded to $420 million, still on track to be #1 for 2013.
| FILMS GROSSING $100+ MILLION through FIRST WEEKEND (LAST THREE YEARS) | ($ millions) | ||||
| First 3-5 Days through 1st Sunday | Next 7 Days through 2nd Sunday | Next 7 Days through 3rd Sunday | Last 7 days versus first few days | Domestic Total | |
| Hunger Games Catching Fire | 158 | 138 | 41 | -74% | 420 (est.) |
| Despicable Me 2 | 143 | 85 | 48 | -66% | 366 |
| Man of Steel | 129 | 81 | 38 | -71% | 291 |
| Iron Man 3 | 171 | 111 | 52 | -70% | 409 |
| Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 2 | 141 | 86 | 27 | -81% | 292 |
| Dark Knight Rises | 161 | 126 | 67 | -58% | 448 |
| Amazing Spider-Man | 137 | 63 | 28 | -80% | 262 |
| Marvel’s The Avengers | 207 | 166 | 85 | -59% | 623 |
| The Hunger Games | 153 | 96 | 54 | -65% | 408 |
| Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 1 | 138 | 83 | 26 | -81% | 281 |
| Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Part 2 | 169 | 104 | 45 | -73% | 381 |
| Transformers Dark of the Moon | 163 | 98 | 42 | -74% | 352 |
| The Hangover Part II | 118 | 68 | 30 | -75% | 254 |
| 13-film average | 153 | 100 | 45 | -71% | 368 |
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $87 million total Friday-Sunday, even with the four-year average for the post-Thanksgiving weekend but down 18% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 49 (2013) versus Weekend 48 prior years | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $87 | Out of the Furnace $5.5 | |
| 2012 | $106 | Killing Them Softly $6.8, The Collection $3.1 | |
| 2011 | $74 | No releases | |
| 2010 | $78 | The Warrior’s Way $3.0 | |
| 2009 | $91 | Brothers $9.5, Armored $6.5, Everybody’s Fine $3.9 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $87 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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