Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7.30.2023

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OPENINGS:  After last week’s Barbenheimer fireworks, the box office for new movies returned to earth–with a thud in the case of HAUNTED MANSION (Disney), which was at the bottom of projections at $24.2M.  With the exception of Guardians 3, it’s been a tepid summer for Disney, and Haunted Mansion carries production/marketing costs in the neighborhood of $250M, making red ink likely.  The struggle to recoup won’t be helped overseas, where the film managed just $9.1M in 53 markets.

Straightforward low-budget horror fared better than the family comedy kind, as TALK TO ME (A24) launched with rave reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes) and $10M, not too far below the studio’s $13.6M start for Hereditary.  Talk To Me has barely opened overseas thus far.

The animated THE FIRST SLAM DUNK (GKids) was a bit above $600K at 581 theaters, a quiet $1100 weekend per-theater average.

HOLDOVERS:  One reason there was limited appetite for arrivals was the remarkable resilience of last week’s blockbusters.  BARBIE (Mattel/Warners) dipped just 43% from last week’s giant start to $93M.  That was parallel to the $92.3M 2nd weekend for Super Mario Bros (although that represented just a 37% drop due to Mario‘s Wednesday opening), and after 10 days, Barbie‘s $351.4M is barely below the $353.2M Mario had after the 12 days that took it to the end of its Weekend 2.  Whether Barbie can match Mario‘s $574.1M US total remains to be seen, but it faces limited competition for the rest of the summer.  Even more impressively, Barbie was down a tiny 32% overseas, with $122.2M in 69 territories.  If Barbie tops Captain Marvel‘s  $1.13B worldwide (it has $774.5M after 10 days), it will be the biggest film of all time from a female director.

OPPENHEIMER (Universal) has been no less impressive, down 44% to $46.2M, with a chance to pass $300M, which would put it above all Christopher Nolan films in the US other than Dark Knight and Dark Knight Rises.  Considering its US-centric story, the overseas performance was downright astonishing, down just 26% to $72.4M in 78 markets.

SOUNDS OF FREEDOM (Angel) held extremely well once again, but it took its biggest hit to date with a 37% drop to $12.4M in its 4th weekend.  It should easily pass $175M in the US.  The overseas launch hasn’t yet begun.

Any hope that MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART 1 (Skydance/Paramount) would bounce back from last weekend’s plunge was diminished by a further 45% drop to $10.7M in its 3rd weekend, suggesting that it won’t reach $175M in the US on massive costs.  The overseas result was inevitably better with $309.3M after a $31.7M weekend, but that suggests the international total will be considerably below Fallout‘s $571.5M.

The injured list for big-budget tentpoles continued with INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY (Lucasfilm/Disney), down 40% to $4M in its 4th weekend and possibly reaching $180M in the US.  The soft overseas total is $188.9M.

ELEMENTAL (Pixar/Disney) lost 41% to $3.4M in Weekend 7, and may reach $155M in the US, another victim of giant costs.  It has $250.3M overseas.

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR (Blumhouse/Screen Gems/Sony) fell 52% to $3.2M in its 4th weekend, on its way to $85M in the US.  It’s stronger overseas with $96.3M.

SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE (Marvel/Sony Animation) dropped 50% to $1.4M in its 9th weekend, and should top $380M in the US, although it will soon fall behind Barbie as the summer leader.  The international total is $303.6M.

LIMITED RELEASE:  THEATER CAMP (Searchlight/Disney) expanded to 295 theaters with a mild $2200 weekend per-theater average.  The right-wing documentary THE ESSENTIAL CHURCH (Atlas) opened at 301 with an $800 average.  AFIRE (Sideshow) widened to 44 and averaged $750.  HAVE YOU GOT IT YET (Abramorama) averaged $700 at 26.  THE UNKNOWN COUNTRY (Music Box) had a $3400 average at 3.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The latest reboot is TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM (Nickelodeon/Paramount), which opens on Wednesday, and THE MEG 2:  THE TRENCH (Warners) follows on Friday.  Limited releases include the Sundance titles PASSAGES (MUBI) and SHORTCOMINGS (Sony Classics).