February 11, 2018

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 2.11.2018


OPENINGS:  FIFTY SHADES FREED (Perfect World/Universal) declined a mild 17% from Fifty Shades Darker to $38.8M, suggesting that Freed will end up around $95M in the US  That wouldn’t be great compared to roughly $150M in production/marketing costs, but the Fifty Shades franchise has always made the bulk of its revenue overseas, and that’s the case with Freed too, opening to $98.1M in 57 markets.  If Freed reaches $325M worldwide, everyone should go home satiated.

PETER RABBIT (Sony Animation/Columbia/Sony) had an OK start with $25M, much better than Paddington 2‘s $11M, but not much to be excited about.  It’s on par with Sony’s $24.5M for The Emoji Movie, which reached $86.1M in the US and $130.9M overseas.  Much will depend on Peter‘s international appeal, especially in its native UK, where Paddington 2 has earned $58.8M to date.

The tepid $12.6M opening for THE 15:17 TO PARIS (Village Roadshow/Warners) returns Clint Eastwood to his pre-American Sniper run, where Jersey Boys started at $13.3M, J. Edgar at $11.2M, and Hereafter at $12M.  It might reach $40M in the US, and it’s beginning soft overseas as well, with $5.3M in 23 territories.  Eastwood keeps his budgets low, but big-studio marketing will still bring total costs to $100M+, so breakeven isn’t assured.

HOLDOVERS:  Note that all weekend-to-weekend comparisons will look better than usual because of last week’s Super Bowl Sunday.

JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony) stayed at the top, down 10% to $9.5M, and on track for $385M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $516.1M after a $7.5M weekend, with Japan still to open.  Sony announced last week that the screenwriters will return for the sequel, and the studio is no doubt counting the days until they can bring it to theatres.

THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (20th) dipped 17% to $6.8M, and should reach at least $160M in the US.  Overseas, it’s at $167.7M after a $8.7M weekend in 40 remaining markets, with only Japan left to open.  Despite its holding power, it’s still far from a blockbuster, but it certainly established that an audience remains for wholesome live-action family musicals.

THE MAZE RUNNER: THE DEATH CURE (20th) fell 43% to $6M in the US, heading toward $60M.  Its real economics, though, are overseas, where it’s currently earning 79% of its revenue with $180.2M after a $23.5M weekend in 80 markets.  That’s an even sharper split than for Scorch Trials, which took in 74% of its total internationally.  But money is money (although the studio retains a smaller percentage of gross from international markets), and Death Cure should be profitable on $150M in costs.

Thanks to the Super Bowl effect, the Weekend 2 drop for WINCHESTER (CBS/Lionsgate) looks moderate at 46% for a $5.1M weekend.  It’s still on track for $25M in the US, with no openings yet overseas

THE POST (DreamWorks/Reliance/Participant/20th) and THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) continue to top the currently playing Oscar nominees.  The Post lost 33% to $3.5M and should reach $80M in the US, with $50.2M overseas to date.  Shape was also down 33% to $3M, on its way to $55M in the US, with $24.5M overseas.  3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) slipped 27% to $2.2M, chugging its way to $50M in the US plus $55.5M overseas so far.  DARKEST HOUR (Focus/Universal) passed the $50M milestone in the US after a 33% drop to $1.6M, and it also has $72.7M overseas.  I, TONYA (Neon) took a 37% hit to $1.6M as it headed toward $30M in the US, with no overseas openings to date.  PHANTOM THREAD (Focus/Universal) lost more than half its theatres and fell 44% to $1.2M, likely to reach $20M in the US, plus $6.7M overseas.  LADY BIRD (A24) dropped 29% to $900K and will hope to reach $50M in the US, still not open overseas.  As usual, CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Classics) brought up the rear, down 23% to $700K, as it prepares to pass $15M in the US, with $11M overseas.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The Spanish-language LA BODA DE VALENTINA (Pantelion/Lionsgate) opened at 331 theatres with a $3400 weekend per-theatre average.  The yearly edition of OSCAR NOMINATED SHORT FILMS claimed a $3400 average in 180 theatres, although it’s not clear how that was calculated, since the shorts play in several different programs with separate ticket sales.  A FANTASTIC WOMAN (Sony Classics) expanded to 20 theatres with a $6K average.  THE INSULT (Cohen) had a $2200 average after widening to 50.

NEXT WEEKEND:  The box office will look very different when BLACK PANTHER (Marvel/Disney) arrives to what is expected to be blockbuster business.  Bits of counterprogramming will come from the stop-motion animated EARLY MAN (Lionsgate) and the Christian-aimed SAMSON (Pure Flix).  Limited releases include the Foreign-Language Film nominee LOVELESS (Sony Classics) and THE PARTY (Roadside).


About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."