OPENINGS: KONG: SKULL ISLAND (Legendary/Tencent/Warners) is playing as a quasi-family movie, perhaps in response to the R-rated Logan and Get Out. That gave it a much more muscular Saturday than similar big-budget monster movies, up 19% on Saturday where Godzilla fell 16% and Pacific Rim dropped 13%. With that boost, Kong should hit its studio estimate of $61M for the US weekend, still about one-third below Godzilla‘s $93.2M, but helpful for a mega-production that may need to recoup $350M in production/marketing costs. Of course, the potential downside to Kong‘s family audience is that it may vanish next weekend when Beauty & the Beast arrives, but it’s there for now. Overseas, Kong is in all major markets except China and Japan (where it arrives in 2 weeks), and it’s at $81.6M, about 20% below Godzilla, which had a similar release pattern. At the moment, it seems to be on track for $500M worldwide, which would make it a moderate success.
HOLDOVERS: LOGAN (TSG/20th) fell 57% in its 2d US weekend, which is the same drop that Deadpool had, but that equivalence comes with an asterisk because Deadpool was coming off a holiday weekend. X-Men: Apocalypse, which also opened over a holiday weekend, had a 65% drop, and the previous 2 standalone Wolverines fell 69% and 60%. In that context, Logan‘s hold is OK, perhaps not as strong as the film’s general praise might have promised. If it reaches $225M in the US, it will easily top the earlier Wolverines ($179.9M/$132.6M), although far below Deadpool‘s $363.1M. Overseas, it’s playing in all major territories except Japan, and it’s at $285.6M after a $70.3M weekend. It seems to be headed for $600M worldwide, which would put it above all films in the X-Men franchise except Deadpool and X-Men: Days of Future Past.
GET OUT (QC/Blumhouse/Universal) continues to hold spectacularly, down just 25% in its 3rd weekend to $21.1M, with a running total of $111.1M and a very good chance of getting to $150M+. That kind of stability would be impressive for any wide release, but for the horror genre it’s phenomenal. Its overseas run hasn’t yet started, and is something of a question mark, but in any case this is a wildly profitable piece of business for all concerned.
THE SHACK (Lionsgate) fell 38% to $10.1M, more or less on par with the 36% Weekend 2 drop for Heaven Is For Real, and 35% for Miracles From Heaven. It should reach $50-60M, which was probably its target. It’s had a negligible overseas release thus far.
THE LEGO BATMAN MOVIE (Warners Animation), in its final pre-Beauty & the Beast weekend, dropped 33% to $7.8M, and might get to $175M in the US. Its international number is currently $116.5M.
BEFORE I FELL (Open Road) held well in the often heavily-frontloaded female YA market, down just 34%, but that’s on a very low opening, so the weekend was at $3.1M, and its running total is only $9M. It’s not going to get much past $15M in theatres, but might have a longer life on ancillary platforms. Last weekend’s other semi-wide opening TABLE 19 (Fox Searchlight) won’t reach $5M after a 47% drop to $850K.
Awards season is over, but HIDDEN FIGURES (20th) is still selling plenty of tickets, down a tiny 28% to $2.8M, with a current $162.9M total. It’s also at $43.2M overseas. MOONLIGHT (A24) may have won the Oscar, but it can’t claim anything like that level of financial success, down 57% from its post-Oscar weekend to $1M and still groping to reach $30M in the US.
LIMITED RELEASE: PERSONAL SHOPPER (IFC) had a fair start with a per-theatre average of $23K at 4 NY/LA arthouses, but that number had the benefit of in-theatre appearances by Kristen Stewart. THE SENSE OF AN ENDING (CBS) had a much more modest debut with a $11K average at 4. THE OTTOMAN LIEUTENANT (Paladin) opened at 216 theatres with a terrible $800 average. A UNITED KINGDOM (Focus/Universal) continued its blah expansion, now at 317 with a $1600 average. The documentary KEDI (Oscilloscope) widened to 114 and averaged $2800. THE LAST WORD (Bleecker Street), now in 25 houses, averaged $3000. LAND OF MINE (Sony Classics) doubled its run to 40 theatres and averaged $1500. MY LIFE AS A ZUCCHINI (GKids) averaged $1100 at 52.
NEXT WEEKEND: BEAUTY & THE BEAST (Disney) will engulf the global box office, and the only question is how much will be left for anyone else. A bit of counterprogramming will come from the very low-budget horror movie THE BELKO EXPERIMENT (Blumhouse/Universal). Limited releases include T2: TRAINSPOTTING (TriStar/Sony) and Terrence Malick’s REEL TO REEL (Broad Green).
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