July 12, 2015

Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7/12/15


OPENINGS:  MINIONS (Illumination/Universal) had a surprisingly bumpy 16% drop on Saturday, but it will handily become the #2 animated opening of all time, topping Toy Story 3‘s $110.3M, even if the studio’s $115.2M forecast turns out to rely on a stronger Sunday rebound than final numbers confirm.  (Still #1: 2007’s  Shrek The Third at $121.6M.)  Minions may face a bit of competition from Pixels in 2 weeks, but otherwise it has the rest of summer more or less to itself in terms of major family features, so it should earn a healthy multiple off its opening weekend.  Overseas, Minions is in 56 markets, covering most of the world (but not yet China or Japan), and after a $124.3M weekend, it’s at $280.5M.  Apart from all these numbers being huge in and of themselves, the added advantage for Universal is that Illumination doesn’t spend nearly as much on its features as Pixar or DreamWorks (reportedly around $100M for Minions), making for all the more profit.

The other openings weren’t within $100M of MinionsTHE GALLOWS (Blumhouse/Warners) opened at the lower end of Blumhouse’s bargain-basement economics with a $10M weekend (that nunber may certainly slip below the magic round number in finals tomorrow), and considering the marketing dollars Warners put behind it, it’s not going to be the guaranteed moneymaker that Blumhouse usually provides.  SELF/LESS (Gramercy/Focus/Universal) was even worse, claiming a $5.4M weekend (and even that may be high), and only able to calculate the magnitude of its losses, as Ryan Reynolds counts the days until Deadpool opens.

HOLDOVERS:  JURASSIC WORLD (Legendary/Universal) and INSIDE OUT (Pixar/Disney) continued in their box office lockstep, with Jurassic reporting a $1M victory for the weekend, $18.1M vs $17.1M.  (Almost all weekend-to-weekend comparisons look good this week because of last week’s subdued July 4th Saturday, with Jurassic down 38%, and Inside Out down 43% despite the arrival of Minions.)  Jurassic is now at $590.6M in the US, climbing its way to take the #3 position of all time from The Avengers and its $623.4M.  Overseas, Jurassic earned another $21.7M for a gargantuan $875.2M, #7 on the international chart and with Japan still to open.  For its part, Inside Out is at $283.6M in the US, and it still has a chance of catching Finding Nemo‘s $339.7M as Pixar’s #2 title, behind Toy Story 3‘s $415M.  The studio is taking a gradual approach to its overseas release, as Inside Out is still in just 44 markets, where after a $19.1M weekend, it’s at $151.8M.

TERMINATOR: GENISYS (Skydance/Paramount) can now only look to break even.  It fell 49% to $13.7M in the US, and with a $68.7M total, it’s unlikely to reach $100M.  Overseas, as expected, the road is smoother, with a $47.3M weekend in 60 markets (but not China) for a $156.1M total.  Considering its $300M+ production/marketing costs, however, that still leaves it with quite a hill to climb.  MAGIC MIKE XXL (Warners) has had an unusually rollercoaster-ish box office ride, starting big, then plunging, and now holding quite well, with a mild 25% decline to $9.6M for a $48.4M US total.  (It’s in only 30 overseas markets, and earned $10.3M for a $20.5M total.)  XXL won’t spew out profit the way the first Magic Mike did, but it’ll end up doing nicely.

TED 2 (MRC/Universal) continued its fall, down 50% to $5.6M in the US ($71.6M total), and with $12.4M in 35 overseas territories ($53.2M total).  MAX (MGM/Warners) was hurt by the arrival of Minions, down 48% to $3.4M for the weekend, with a $33.7M total.  A trio of long running titles hit milestones:  SPY (20th) is now at $103.5M in the US ($219.9M worldwide), SAN ANDREAS (Rat Pac-Dune/Village Roadshow/New Line/Warners) is at $150M ($449.2M worldwide), and MAD MAX: FURY ROAD (Village Roadshow/Warners) reached $150.3M ($359.6M worldwide).  The first 2 are safely in profit, while Mad Max will have to hope for a China bonanza.

LIMITED RELEASE:  The Indian-language epic BAAHUBALI (BlueSky) has a remarkable $3.6M start in just 236 theatres, enough to it put in the weekend’s Top 10, and giving it a per-theatre average of $15.2K, second for the weekend only to Minions.  It’s not clear whether the film will have any great appeal beyond its niche, but it’s certainly making the most of its market.  AMY (A24) quickly expanded from last week’s 6 theatres all the way to 341, and had a fair $5200 average and a $1.8M weekend total.  TANGERINE (Magnolia) rode rave reviews to a $12.2K average at 5 theatres.  A trio of Sony Classics releases expanded to so-so results:  TESTAMENT OF YOUTH had a $2K average at 91, INFINITELY POLAR BEAR averaged $2300 at 76, and JIMMY’S HALL averaged $3700 at 11.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Two major figures of the moment’s pop culture zeitgeist arrive:  the latest comic book adventure ANT-MAN (Marvel/Disney) and Amy Schumer’s first big-screen venture TRAINWRECK (Universal).  There are strong titles in limited release as well, with the year’s Woody Allen project IRRATIONAL MAN (Sony Classics) joined by Bill Condon’s detective in winter mystery MR. HOLMES (Miramax/Roadshow), with Ian McKellan as the star.

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."