Behind the US/Worldwide Weekend Box Office – 7/5/15

• Tweet
• Email

• Tweet
• Email

OPENINGS:  TERMINATOR: GENISYS (Skydance/Paramount) had hoped, even with July 4th subduing Saturday business, to find a holiday spark that would allow it to earn at least a $150M total in the US, but after a $28.7M opening weekend ($44.2M including Wed-Thurs), it may be hard-pressed to get past $100M.  That puts additional pressure on the international returns, and those are indeed more promising, with $74M in 46 markets ($85.5M including some early openings last week) that represent more than half the world.  That doesn’t include China, which is certainly expected to be a key market for the action epic.  Still, even a $450M worldwide total for a product with $350M in production/marketing costs would make this not much more than a breakeven proposition once fees are taken off the top, especially since China, despite its high grosses, allows studios to retain relatively little of the ticket sales.  Further franchise installments are far from certain (until the inevitable next reboot).

MAGIC MIKE XXL (Warners) is pushing the limits on how little it can make and still show a profit.  Although it had a tiny $15M production budget, it still carries an expensive studio marketing campaign on its books, and the extremely frontloaded $26.7M 5-day total (only $11.6M of it from Fri-Sun) suggests that it may have trouble reaching $50M in the US–the original Magic Mike made $39.1M in its first 3 days alone–and may find itself needing international success just to break even, a dicey proposition since the first Magic Mike made less than one-third of its $167.2M worldwide total outside the US  (So far XXL has taken in $6.2M in 15 territories.)

MINIONS (Illumination/Universal) is cleaning up overseas in advance of its US opening next week, with $54.3M in 26 territories for the weekend, giving it $124.2M already in the bank.

HOLDOVERS:  JURASSIC WORLD (Legendary/Universal) continues to eke out narrow weekend victories over its Disney rival, this time with $30.9M compared to $30.1M.  The dinosaurs are still ripping up the record books, as Jurassic‘s $558.1M US total pushed it ahead of The Dark Knight as the #4 movie ever domestically, and its worldwide $1.385B makes it #5 globally, ahead of Avengers: Age of Ultron.  In addition to its US weekend, Jurassic added $42M overseas–and it hasn’t yet opened in Japan.  It seems poised to pass the original Avengers and its $1.52B worldwide total as the biggest non-James Cameron movie ever made.

In the US, INSIDE OUT (Pixar/Disney) was right behind Jurassic at $30.1M (both films were down 43% from last weekend), and has a $246.2M US total to date, although it faces a major challenge from Minions next weekend.  Still, it should have no trouble passing $300M domestically, which would make it Pixar’s #3 hit.  Overseas, Inside Out is still in less half the world, and it has $117.3M after a $18.6M weekend.

TED 2 (MRC/Universal) will probably manage to show a profit when all is said and done, but that’s all that can be said for it.  It had a disastrous 67% 2d weekend dive to $11M, on its way to $80M in the US, and has $36M in 31 foreign markets after a $8.8M weekend.  MAX (MGM/Warners) held nicely, down 46% to $6.6M, with a $25.3M total.  SPY (20th) continues to earn, down just 31% from last weekend to $5.5M ($97.9M total), plus $3.5M overseas ($112.8M total).

ME AND EARL AND THE DYING GIRL (Fox Searchlight) and DOPE (Open Road) will join the roster of Sundance cautionary tales, as neither appears likely to justify its acquisition cost.  Me and Earl expanded to 870 theatres with a weak $1500 per-theatre average, and after a $1.3M weekend, it’s barely past $4M.  Dope is quickly shedding theatres, and had a $1300 average at the 863 that are left, giving it a $1.1M weekend and $14.1M total.

LIMITED RELEASE:  AMY (A24) had an excellent start with a $37K average at 6 theatres.  That was far and away the best news on the indie front.  THE OVERNIGHT (Orchard) expanded to 307 theatres with an anemic $1200 average.  INFINITELY POLAR BEAR (Sony Classics) had a $3200 average at 63, and TESTAMENT OF YOUTH (Sony Classics) averaged $2600 at 68.  At just 3 NY/LA arthouses, JIMMY’S HALL (Sony Classics) arrived with a $7300 average.

NEXT WEEKEND:  Minions will own the multiplexes.  The counterprogramming comes from the sci-fi thriller SELF/LESS (Focus/Universal) and teen horror THE GALLOWS (Warners).  Limited releases are led by TANGERINE (Magnolia).