OPENINGS: Not much changed between Friday’s results and weekend studio estimates. THE DARK TOWER (MRC/Columbia/Sony) was unsurprisingly frontloaded between fans of the novels and bad word of mouth, and it dropped 13% on Saturday. Sony is projecting a $19.5M weekend (the fact that the studio didn’t push the number past $20M indicates either honesty or surrender), which puts the original hopes of a mega-franchise precisely nowhere. Dark Tower will need substantial overseas success just to break even on $150M+ in production/marketing costs, and early signs are unpromising, as it opened in 19 territories (including Russia) and took in just $8M.
KIDNAP (Aviron) and its $10.2M opening isn’t anything to shout about, but it could hit profit thanks to tiny acquisition costs for its brand-new studio and a small-scale marketing campaign. Notably, it dropped just 2% on Saturday, suggesting that it could have longer legs than one might expect.
DETROIT (Annapurna) was steady on Saturday, but that still couldn’t get it past $7.3M for the weekend. It’s hard to see a scenario where the film earns back its $100M+ in costs for production and worldwide marketing, and it will be interesting to see if the weekend’s other new distributor cuts its losses or continues to spend in search of a lengthy run that may position the film for an awards campaign.
HOLDOVERS: The shaky newcomers were good news for the titles that already have good word of mouth. DUNKIRK (Warners) dipped 34% in its 3rd weekend to $17.6M, and it seems likely to reach $175M+ in the US. Overseas, it’s at $180.6M after a $25M weekend, and upcoming openings include China. Christopher Nolan’s war epic should easily top $400M worldwide, and has a chance to hit $500M.
With no family competition around, THE EMOJI MOVIE (Columbia/Sony) had a decent Weekend 2 drop of 50% to $12.4M, keeping it on track for a $75M US total. That puts it on a level with Captain Underpants, which fell 49% on its 2d weekend and ended up at $72.9M. Emoji is still early in its run overseas, and currently has $12.7M.
GIRLS TRIP (Perfect World/Universal) fell 42% in its 3rd weekend to $11.4M, and should have no trouble passing $100M in the US. As of now, it has $5.4M overseas in limited release.
SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING (Marvel/Columbia/Sony) has turned out to have excellent legs in the US, slipping 34% in its 5th weekend to $8.8M. If it winds up at $310M, that will still be lower than the Sam Raimi Spider-Men, but up an impressive 50% from the US result for Amazing Spider-Man 2, its immediate predecessor. Overseas, Homecoming is at $376M, and China is still to come.
ATOMIC BLONDE (Sierra/Focus/Universal) had no traction, down 55% to $8.2M, and little likelihood of getting much past $50M in the US. It’s in dire need of international success, and the overseas run is still early with $11.7M so far.
WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES (TSG/20th) dropped 43% to $6M in its 4th weekend, for a probable $145M US total. Things are better overseas, where it hasn’t opened yet in China, Japan or Korea, and is at $147.8M after a $31.5M weekend. However, barring a bonanza in China, War is still not going to get anywhere near Dawn‘s $710.6M worldwide or $502M overseas.
Milestones are nearing for a pair of longrunning hits: WONDER WOMAN (RatPac/Huahua/Tencent/DC/Warners) should reach $400M in the US over the next day or two (it also has $393.9M overseas), and BABY DRIVER (MRC/TriStar/Sony) is a week away from hitting $100M in the US (plus $57.5M to date overseas).
LIMITED RELEASE: WIND RIVER (Weinstein) had an unexpectedly strong showing in a 4-theatre NY/LA opening with a $41K per-theatre average. This is a fairly mainstream thriller and not an esoteric art film, so it could hold well when it expands to 45 next weekend. STEP (Fox Searchlight) opened at 29 theatres with a mild $5K average. COLUMBUS (self-distributed via a new Sundance program) rode enthusiastic reviews to a $14K average at 2. LANDLINE (Amazon/Magnolia) expanded to 141 with a $1700 average. LADY MACBETH (Roadside), now in 131, averaged $1300. THE MIDWIFE (Music Box) averaged $1900 at 43. MENASHE (A24) is hitting its niche, averaging $8K at 10. BRIGSBY BEAR (Sony Classics) averaged $2900 at 15. One footnote: while WOLF WARRIORS 2 (H Collective) is barely on the US radar with $1.1M to date in 31 theatres, it’s probably going to become the highest-grossing film in Chinese history (it earned $163M in its second weekend), passing the $527M record of The Mermaid–another blockbuster that barely registered in the US ($3.2M total).
NEXT WEEKEND: ANNABELLE: CREATION (New Line/Warners) will hope to revive the box office with an opening near its predecessor’s $37.1M. THE NUT JOB 2: NUTTY BY NATURE (Open Road) follows the $19.4M opening of its own forebear. THE GLASS CASTLE (Lionsgate) is more of an odd duck, a serious drama opening in around 1400 theatres. Limited releases include GOOD TIME (A24), INGRID GOES WEST (Neon), and THE ONLY LIVING BOY IN NEW YORK (Roadside).
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