OPENINGS: Despite the strong weekend, it’s a bit troubling that GROWN UPS 2 (Sony) fell 11% on Saturday (the original Grown Ups rose 2% on its 2d day), suggesting frontloading and less than great word of mouth. That may place the studio’s estimated Sunday drop of 21% and $42.5M weekend total in doubt, but we’ll find out tomorrow. In any case, the movie successfully broke Adam Sandler’s losing streak (and Sony’s, too), but with a production/marketing budget that will total around $200M, the movie still needs to hold its audience to reach much of a profit.
The speculation last week was that Legendary Entertainment was desperate to announce its new deal with Universal before the box office for PACIFIC RIM (Warners/Legendary) hit, because the sci-fi epic was one of the few for which Legendary put up the majority of the production budget (reportedly 75%) and took the creative lead. That was successfully accomplished, but the games continue, as the movie’s estimates seem somewhat attenuated. The very frontloaded genre item fell 13% on Saturday, yet Warners and Legendary are only claiming a 15% drop on Sunday (lowest in the Top 10 by far) to reach a purported $38.3M weekend. The truth is that even if that number holds, the movie is in serious trouble. It’s unlikely to get much beyond $100M in the US, and made $53M in territories covering half the world over the weekend, which means its ceiling overseas may be around $300M. Since studios only keep a fraction of actual ticket prices, a $400M worldwide total will make Pacific Rim a loser on $350M in production/marketing costs.
HOLDOVERS: DESPICABLE ME 2 (Universal) continues to be everything Universal could have wished. It won the weekend with $44.8M, and was also the #1 movie overseas with $55.7M. That gives it a worldwide total so far of $472.4M, on a production/marketing cost of $200M, and there’s still hundreds of millions in revenue ahead.
In case there was any doubt that THE LONE RANGER (Disney) was a disaster, the western thudded to a 62% drop in the US ($11.1M), and only $12.7M in overseas markets covering about one-third of the world. With just $119.1M earned worldwide so far, there’s a real question of whether it will even match John Carter‘s $282.8M worldwide total, a movie that led to Disney writing off a $200M loss. Embarrassingly, the short-term play LET ME EXPLAIN (Lionsgate) had a better hold, down 50% for a $5M weekend and $26.4M total.
The Disney news was better for MONSTERS UNIVERSITY (Disney/Pixar), which earned $10.6M in the US (down 46%) and $30.2M overseas (covering most of the world) for a worldwide total of $474.2M. It seems to be heading for a $600-650M global total, better than Brave, Cars 2 and the original Monsters Inc, although not at the high reaches of Pixar’s numbers.
THE HEAT (20th) held very well, down just 44% in the US for $112.4M so far. (It’s overseas release has barely begun.)
WORLD WAR Z (Paramount) continues to struggle toward profitability. It now seems unlikely to reach $200M in the US (it’s at $177.1M after a $9.4M weekend), and may get to $300M overseas (it has $246M after a $22M weekend). With its enormous $400M+ costs, a $500M global return might just get it to breakeven. MAN OF STEEL (Warners) is slowing, down to a $4.8M weekend in the US ($280.1M total–it won’t get to $300M) and $13.3M overseas ($338.2M–with only Japan left to open, it may not reach $400M). A $675M worldwide total is a success, but not a particularly impressive one in the world of mega-budgeted economics ($75M below the rebooted The Amazing Spider-Man), so the ball is in Warners’ court about what to do next with the franchise.
LIMITED RELEASE: FRUITVALE STATION (Weinstein) proved to be all too timely this weekend, and it had a superb start with a $54K average in 7 theatres. It’s crass to say so, but if anyone can successfully exploit mournful current events at the box office, it’s Harvey Weinstein, and sometimes he uses his powers for good: Fruitvale is an enormously valuable film for people to see right now. THE WAY, WAY BACK (Fox Searchlight) had a solid if unspectacular expansion to 79 theatres with a $14K average. The documentary 20 FEET FROM STARDOM (TWC/Weinstein) expanded well to 131 theatres with a $3800 average. UNFINISHED SONG (Weinstein) was less impressive with a $2700 average at 91. CRYSTAL FAIRY (IFC–also on VOD) stirred some interest with a $12K average at 2.
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