OPENINGS:  ADRIFT (H Brothers/STX) was at the top of a very low hill with $11.5M (plus $350K in 9 overseas territories).  STX, which only has domestic rights, is claiming to be on the hook for only around $30M in limited production and marketing costs, but even at that number, it may not break even, […]

Weekend #10 of 2016 is looking like $146 million for the top 12 films this weekend, above the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below). NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND March 4-6, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection Zootopia Dis PG 100% 67.0 225 375 600 London Has […]

  KONG: SKULL ISLAND (Legendary/Tencent/Warners) had a $20M opening day according to preliminary numbers at Deadline (that’s at the high end of numbers reported elsewhere earlier in the day), including $3.7M from Thursday night.  Even if that number holds, it’s little more than half the $38.4M opening day for Godzilla 3 years ago.  Godzilla had […]

  OPENINGS:  DESPICABLE ME 3 (Illumination/Universal) is the latest franchise to underdeliver this summer, with a 3-day studio estimate of $75.4M in the US.  That’s far below the $115.7M opening of Minions, and it compares badly with Despicable 2 as well, since that title earned $83.5M over its first weekend after having already banked $59.6M […]

Weekend #14 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND April 1-3, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection God’s Not Dead 2 PureFlix PG n/a 12.5 35 3 38 Meet the Blacks Freestyle R n/a 3.0 6 […]

Weekend #27 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND July 1-3, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Four Day Fri-Sun Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection Purge: Election Year Uni R 67% 23.0 28.5 65 45 110 The BFG Dis PG 71% […]

  OPENINGS:  After 4 weeks of holiday movies occupying most of the market, moviegoers were ready for something new, and the beneficiary was THE UPSIDE (STX/Lantern), which substantially beat projections with a $19.6M weekend.  A 14% Saturday bump suggested strong word of mouth, and the final weekend number could go higher than the studio projection.  […]

Weekend #19 of 2016 forecasts for films opening wide and major returning films: NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND May 6-8, 2016 Critics Positive ($ millions) Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection Captain America: Civil War Dis PG13 93% 206.5 518 595 1,113 Note: Although critic reviews are not related to […]