ALIEN: COVENANT (TSG/20th) was supposed to refresh the franchise after the disenchanted response to Prometheus, but it’s opening at the low end of expectations.  Preliminary numbers at Deadline put opening day at $15.2M (including $4.2M from Thursday night), which suggests a $38M weekend.  Covenant carries about $225M in production/marketing costs, and it may not […]

  OPENINGS:  The calendar did Hollywood a favor by placing Valentine’s Day on Wednesday, affording films a 6-day window with Presidents Day on Monday.  The chief beneficiary was BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE (Paramount), which surpassed expectations with $51.1M through Monday ($27.7M over the traditional 3-day weekend).  With little new competition in the wings next week, […]

The first weekend of the new year is looking like $125 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, slightly above average for this weekend versus previous years. Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday (slightly below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones from Paramount should average about $7,000 per theater for […]

  After years in the wilderness, M. Night Shyamalan returned to profitability with last year’s The Visit, and based on preliminary numbers at Deadline, SPLIT (Blumhouse/Universal) will build on that success.  Opening day was $13.5M (including $2M from Thursday night), far ahead of Visit‘s $9.2M, and the weekend could be as high as $35M, a […]

  OPENINGS:  The east coast blizzard seems to have had less effect on the weekend box office than one might have assumed, considering that all the newcomers went up from Friday to Saturday, even though they were in typically front-loaded genres.  Their studio estimates have them bunched within a narrow $825K range for the weekend, […]

Weekend #47 of 2015 is looking like a decent $202 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up moderately from the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below). The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 from Lionsgate should open with a $126.0 million weekend. The film is on track for around $360 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring […]

  OPENINGS:  WHERE THE CRAWDADS SING (Columbia/Sony) launched with $17M, ahead of (low) expectations, and fueled by an audience of women in the midwest/south.  There’s no direct competition in sight, and it should be able to leg out past $50M in the US, which would be considered a win for the moderately-budgeted production.  Crawdads may […]

  There were no new openings for New Year’s weekend, and not much in the way of surprises among the returning titles.  ROGUE ONE (Lucasfilm/Disney) continued its ride through the holidays with $18.1M on Friday according to preliminary numbers at Deadline.  That’s up about 8% from Thursday, and business should go down on New Year’s […]