ALIEN: COVENANT (TSG/20th) was supposed to refresh the franchise after the disenchanted response to Prometheus, but it’s opening at the low end of expectations. Preliminary numbers at Deadline put opening day at $15.2M (including $4.2M from Thursday night), which suggests a $38M weekend. Covenant carries about $225M in production/marketing costs, and it may not get much beyond $100M in the US, which could translate into $300M or so worldwide, leaving little profit for 20th once distribution costs and Ridley Scott’s back-end are calculated. (Interestingly, 20th spent a lot of money this week on TV ads not for Covenant but for July’s War For the Planet of the Apes, which may–or may not–indicate that the studio knew Covenant‘s potential was limited.)
If Covenant dips even more over the weekend (Prometheus had only a 2.4x multiple from its opening day), the battle for 1st place could be a close one between it and GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 2 (Marvel/Disney), which fell 47% from last Friday to $8.7M and should have a $32M weekend. That will put it at just about $300M in the US, and it should end up slightly above the $333.2M earned by the original Guardians, perhaps a bit below the very high expectations for the sequel.
EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING (MGM/Warners) is a low-budget (around $10M) play, and for once it seemed as though Warners kept its marketing budget at a reasonable level. That being the case, its possible $12M weekend (based on $4.6M on Friday) could put it on track for moderate success.
DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LONG HAUL (20th) tried to reboot a franchise that no one cared to have back, and it was DOA with a $2M Friday that might give it a $7M weekend. With $70M or so in production/marketing costs, and little international appeal (the last installment made only 36% of its worldwide total overseas), it’s unlikely to break even.
SNATCHED (TSG/20th) is going to take a particular hit in this weekend’s Sunday vs Sunday comparison because of its strength on Mothers Day. Friday was bad enough, down 55% from last week to $2.3M, and the weekend may only be $8M. It’s in line for a $50M US total, a long way down from Trainwreck‘s $110.2M.
After last weekend’s disastrous opening, the news didn’t get any better for KING ARTHUR: LEGEND OF THE SWORD (Village Roadshow/RatPac/Warners), down 63% from last Friday to $1.9M, with a $6.5M weekend ahead and a US total that will probably end up at a shabby $40M. Meanwhile, early projections have Wonder Woman at a solid but not thrilling $65-75M opening, so this summer is looking like a dark one for Warners.
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