Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #11 of 2015 now looks like $124 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up solidly from the norms for this weekend.
Opening at 3,845 theaters Friday, Cinderella from Disney is on track for a $70.1 million opening three-day weekend (near our $69.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a strong $18,200 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very supportive (83% positive overall and 83% positive with top critics). Cinderella is headed for $207 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,171 theaters Friday, Run All Night from Warner Brothers is on track for an $11.0 million opening three-day weekend (below our $14.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a soft $3,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is tilting positive (59% positive overall but a mediocre 48% positive with top critics). Run All Night is now headed for $35 million total domestic.
| Weekend 11: March 13-15, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Cinderella | Dis | [69.5] | 70.0 | 70.1 | 23.0/ 27.1 | 207 | |
| Run All Night | WB | [14.5] | 10.3 | 11.0 | 3.9/ 4.5 | 35 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [5.5] | 6.2 | 6.2 | 1.7/ 2.9 | 124 | |
| Focus | WB | [6.0] | 5.9 | 5.8 | 1.7/ 2.6 | 59 | |
| Chappie | Sony | [6.8] | 5.2 | 5.8 | 1.6/ 2.5 | 31 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | [6.1] | 5.7 | 5.7 | 1.6/ 2.5 | 34 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | [3.8] | 4.6 | 4.1 | .95/ 1.9 | 164 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | [3.5] | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.0/ 1.6 | 44 | |
| American Sniper | WB | [—] | 3.0 | 2.9 | .76/ 1.4 | 360 | |
| The DUFF | CBS/LG | [3.0] | 2.9 | 2.9 | .95/ 1.3 | 36 | |
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | [2.7] | 2.8 | 2.9 | .94/ 1.3 | 162 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $6.2 million this weekend (down -25% from last weekend and above our $5.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $124 million.
Focus is headed for $5.8 million this weekend (down -42% from last weekend and near our $6.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $59 million.
Chappie is headed for $5.8 million this weekend (down -57% from last weekend and well below our $6.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $31 million.
Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is headed for $5.7 million this weekend (down -33% from last weekend and a touch below our $6.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $34 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $124 million total Friday-Sunday, up slightly from yesterday’s estimate ($123 million) and up +24% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +21% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 11 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $124 | Cinderella $70.1, Run All Night $11.0 | |
| 2014 | $102 | Need for Speed $17.8, TP’s Single Moms Club $8.1 | |
| 2013 | $96 | The Call $17.1, Incredible Burt Wonderstone $10.2 | |
| 2012 | $98 | 21 Jump Street $36.3, Friends with Kids $1.5 | |
| 2011 | $103 | Battle: Los Angeles $35.6, Red Riding Hood $14.0, Mars Needs Moms $6.9 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $100 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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