OPENINGS:  THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG (Warners/MGM) had a better Saturday hold than last year’s An Unexpected Journey (-22% vs. -25%), suggesting that positive word of mouth is kicking in, and no doubt easing the minds of Warners executives.  The studio’s $73.7M weekend estimate still puts it 13% below Journey‘s start, but if […]

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #29 of 2014 now looks like $135 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, -27% below the norm for this weekend and still below our forecast ($147 million).  This is the fifth really sub-par weekend in a row. Opening at 2,806 theaters, The Purge: Anarchy from Universal grossed $13.0 […]

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #10 of 2015 now looks like $79 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s $77 million estimate but still down significantly from the norms for this weekend among the worst first weekends of March on record.   Opening at 3,201 theaters Friday, Chappie from Warner […]

  OPENINGS:  Let’s be clear:  the decision to greenlight a $100M production budget for IN THE HEART OF THE SEA (Village Roadshow/Warners)–a period whaling adventure that features about 10 minutes of a CG whale and is otherwise mostly (spoiler alert) about the cast starving and suffering–was fundamentally insane.  Even if the film had been good, […]

  OPENINGS:  The SAUSAGE PARTY (Annapurna/Columbia/Sony) audience was somewhat frontloaded, with a 16% Saturday decline, but the weekend total of $33.6M was still outstanding, the best starring debut for Seth Rogen since the original Neighbors, and higher than the $33M 5-day opening for This Is The End (which opened on a Wednesday).  There’s certainly nothing […]

  OPENINGS:  THE EQUALIZER 2 (Escape Artists/Columbia Sony) rode a relatively stable Saturday (down 5% from Friday) to a $35.8M weekend win, up about 5% from the opening for the first Equalizer in 2014.  That film had an 8% Saturday bump, suggesting that the sequel, like most sequels, will burn out faster than the original, […]

  OPENINGS:  DUMBO (Disney) had a 14% Saturday bump that was merely OK considering its underwhelming first day, and that brought it to a $45M weekend.  Even if it reaches $150M in the US, it would need help to get out of red ink with $300M+ in production/marketing costs, and so far it doesn’t seen […]

  OPENINGS:  The numbers for STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER (Lucasfilm/Disney) were always going to be huge, but despite all the “dog ate its homework” excuses like pre-holiday shopping syndrome that are ricocheting around the trades today, a $175.5M start in the US is a significant disappointment.  Anyone who’s seen Skywalker knows that it […]