October 7, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The weekend still looks like a very good $132 million for the top 12 films, similar to the estimate yesterday.  Taken 2 opened well (ahead of the ShowbuzzDaily Weekend Prediction earlier this week) but probably will degrade quickly the next few weekends, while Hotel Transylvania and Looper are having decent sophomore weekends (each down only about 40%).  

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend:  Taken 2 ($138 million initial estimate) and Frankenweenie ($42 million).

Second week films: Hotel Transylvania ($142 million, down slightly from an initial $145 million estimate last week), Looper ($72 million, up significantly from an initial $64 million estimate last week) and Pitch Perfect ($68 million, up sharply from the initial $27 million estimate last week).

Third week films:  End of Watch ($46 million, similar to $48 last week and $46 million week one), Trouble with the Curve ($39 million, down steadily from a $45 million estimate in week one and $42 million last week), House at the End of the Street ($33 million, identical to last week and up from the $24 million estimate in week one), and The Master ($20 million, similar to $19 million last week and down from the initial $25 million estimate).

Fourth week films:  Finding Nemo 3D ($45 million estimate now, down steadily from $70 million week one, $57 million week two and $50 million last week) and Resident Evil: Retribution ($41 million, similar to $42 million in week two and $43 million in week three and down from the initial $53 million estimate in week one).

Weekend 40: Oct 5-7, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
Taken 2 Fox 50.0 138
Hotel Transylvania Sony/ Col -38% 26.3 142
Pitch Perfect Universal +186% 14.7 69
Looper Sony/ Tri -41% 12.2 72
Frankenweenie Disney 11.5 42
End of Watch Open Road -49% 4.0 46
Trouble with the Curve WB -47% 3.9 39
House at End of Street Relativity -48% 3.7 33
The Master Weinstein -31% 1.8 20
Finding Nemo 3D Disney -61% 1.6 45
Perks of Being a Wallflower LG/ Summit +38% 1.5 n/a
Won’t Back Down Fox -61% 1.2 6


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very strong $132 million total Friday-Sunday, up 55% from the same weekend last year and up a similar 52% from the average comparable weekend the last four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #39 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $132 Taken 2 $50, Pitch Perfect $15, Frankenweenie $11.5
2011 $85 Real Steel $27, Ides of March $10.5
2010 $81 Life As We Know It $14.5, Secretariat $13, My Soul to Take $7
2009 $96 Couples Retreat $34
2008 $87 Quarantine $14, Body of Lies $13, The Express $4.6
Avg 2008-11 $87

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend are a ton of films:  Argo from Warner Brothers (drama/thriller starring Ben Affleck), Here Comes the Boom from Sony/Columbia (comedy starring Kevin James), Sinister from Summit (horror), Seven Psychopaths from CBS Films (action comedy starring Colin Farrell and Sam Rockwell) and Atlas Shrugged: Part II from Atlas Distribution (overwrought drama).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Real Steel ($27.3 million opening weekend) and Ides of March ($10.5 million).

International grosses will be updated as available.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.