November 17, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates NOVEMBER 15-17

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #46 of 2013 now looks like $123 million for the top 12 films, about $4 million above yesterday’s estimate.

Opening at 2,024 theaters Friday, The Best Man Holiday from Universal grossed $10.7 million Friday and $12.4 million Saturday is now on track for a $30.6 million opening weekend (still well above the $21.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good three-day average of $15,100 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is somewhat positive (63% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 58% positive with top critics). Best Man Holiday is headed for $92 million total domestic, way above the $34.1 million domestic total for The Best Man which opened with $9.0 million back on the weekend of October 22-24, 1999.

Thor: The Dark World (now looking like it will be down 55% in its second weekend) is now headed for $239 million total domestic, while About Time (down 27% in its second weekend) has been upgraded to $22 million. 

On the specialty circuit, Nebraska from Paramount and directed by Alexander Payne is headed for a superior $35,000 per theater opening weekend at 4 theaters.  The Christmas Candle is headed for a $15,100 average opening weekend at 5 theaters.  The Great Beauty will open this weekend with $23,000 at 1 theater.  Ram Leela from India is on track for a just okay $6,800 per theater opening weekend at 205 theaters.  12-12-12 from Weinstein is DOA with a $1,900 per theater average opening weekend at 2 theaters.  But the real clunker award goes to Charlie Countryman with a phenomenally awful opening weekend average of $572 per theater at 15 theaters.

Dallas Buyer’s Club from Focus/Universal continues its nice roll-out with a $9,700 per theater average for its third weekend at 184 theaters.  Through Sunday, the film will be up to $3.0 million total.  The first weekend was a great $28,985 per theater at 9 theaters.  The second weekend at 35 theaters averaged $18,249 per.

Weekend 46: November 15-17, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Thor: The Dark World Dis [40.2] 35.3 38.4 10.5–16.8 239
Best Man Holiday Uni [21.5] 31.1 30.6 10.7–12.4 92
Last Vegas CBS [8.1] 9.6 8.9 2.5–3.9 68
Free Birds Rel [8.2] 7.4 8.3 1.8–3.9 61
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Par [7.4] 7.4 7.7 2.3–3.4 110
Gravity WB [6.3] 6.0 6.3 1.7–2.9 261
Ender’s Game LG/Sum [5.9] 5.9 6.2 1.7–2.8 66
12 Years a Slave Fox S [5.9] 4.8 4.7 1.3–2.1 44
Captain Phillips Sony [4.3] 4.4 4.5 1.3–2.1 113
About Time Uni [—] 3.4 3.5 1.1–1.5 22

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $123 million total Friday-Sunday, down 45% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 49% from the same weekend last year.  Usually weekend #46 directly preceded Thanksgiving week and is a box office bonanza.  This year the calendar forces Thanksgiving weekend onto weekend #48.

WEEKEND 46 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $123 Best Man Holiday $30.6
2012 $242 Twilight Saga: Breaking Down Part 2 $141.1, Lincoln $21.0
2011 $215 Twilight Saga: Breaking Down Part 1 $138.1, Happy Feet Two $21.2
2010 $186 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 $125.0, Next Three Days $6.5
2009 $250 Twilight Saga: New Moon $142.8, Blind Side $34.1, Planet 51 $12.3
Avg 2009-12 $223

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.