It’s a busy but not particularly big weekend at the multiplex. The weekend’s winner will be BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN (Lionsgate), which did a fairly good job of holding the audience for last year’s original Boo. Deadline reports a preliminary $7.5M opening day, down 21% from Boo‘s start. If that percentage holds, the weekend will be $22.5M, although the first Boo was fueled in large part by a big family bump on Saturday of 24%, the kind of increase that would normally be seen on an animated movie, and we’ll see if Boo 2 can duplicate that. In any case, Boo 2 was produced on Tyler Perry’s usual economical budget, and if it can reach $60M in the US, it will turn a tidy profit and rank as #4 in the Madea franchise.
After that, things got ugly. GEOSTORM (Skydance/RatPac/Warners) cost $200M+ to produce and market, and with a $4.2M opening day, it may only reach $11M for the weekend. The dunderheaded CG extravaganza is likely to find much more success overseas, but if it doesn’t get past $30M in the US, virtually its entire cost will have to be recouped from foreign territories.
ONLY THE BRAVE (Black Label/Columbia/Sony) wasn’t able to capitalize on positive reviews (89% on Rotten Tomatoes) or supposed red-state appeal, and only drew $2.2M on opening day for a weekend that might stretch to $6M if families and churchgoers turn up on Saturday and Sunday. It’s unlikely to stir much international interest, so even with moderate costs of $100M all in, there’s little likelihood of escaping red ink. After the failures of both Boston bombing films and Deepwater Horizon, it seems like the one thing audiences don’t have any interest in seeing these days is the recreation of real-life disaster. The other point worth noting is that Only the Brave joins all three of the new network TV military series (The Brave on NBC, SEAL Team on CBS, and Valor on CW) in failing to translate red-state politics to success, although the CBS show is holding on thanks to that network’s aged audience.
Worst of all was THE SNOWMAN (Good Universe/Universal), a complete disaster with $1.4M on Friday and perhaps $3.5M for the weekend. This film, too, was moderately budgeted, but with those numbers it won’t matter.
SAME KIND OF DIFFERENT AS ME (Paramount/Pure Flix), which Paramount let drop to the smaller Christian studio, had the excuse of a 1326-theatre count, but still made little impression with $1M on Friday and a weekend that might reach $3M.
Turning to holdovers, HAPPY DEATH DAY (Blumhouse/Universal) didn’t show the kind of appeal that made Split and Get Out into blockbusters. Death fell 74% to $3.1M compared to last Friday, while Split dropped 46% and Get Out was down a miraculous 26%. Death is heading for a $10M 2d weekend, and a US total around $60M, a very nice success but not a game-changer.
BLADE RUNNER 2049 (Alcon/Sony/Warners) never found a grip on audiences. Its 3rd Friday was down 56% from last week to $1.9M, and it now seems to be headed for a $7M weekend and a US total of $85M, not much considering its steep cost. It will need to be huge in China and Japan.
THE FOREIGNER (Wanda/H Brothers/STX) is disappearing fast, down 68% from last Friday to $1.5M, for a $5M weekend and $30-35M in the US.
IT (RatPac/New Line/Warners), KINGSMAN: THE GOLDEN CIRCLE (MARV/20th) and AMERICAN MADE (Cross Creek/Universal) all had Fridays around $1M and should have $3M weekends, but their likely US totals are widely divergent, respectively $325M, $100M and $50M.
MARSHALL (Open Road) held well, down 45% from last Friday, but that left it at a modest $500K with $1.5M for the weekend and not much chance to get past $10M in the US. PROFESSOR MARSTON & THE WONDER WOMEN (Annapurna) completed its collapse, down 74% from last Friday to $65K for a $225K weekend, unlikely to reach a $2M US total.
THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER (A24) had a decent start on the awards circuit, heading for a $22K weekend per-theatre average in 4 NY/LA arthouses. The documentary JANE (NatGeo) played similarly, on its way to a $20K weekend average at 3. But WONDERSTRUCK (Amazon/Roadside) struck out–the 69% Rotten Tomatoes score didn’t help–with a subpar $12K average at 4.
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