The Disney machine is hitting an atypical pothole with DUMBO (Disney), which according to preliminary numbers at Deadline had a $14.8M Friday ($2.6M of that from Thursday night). That’s very much on the low end of the studio’s live-action remakes of its own animated classics, behind the opening days for Beauty & The Beast ($63.8M), Alice In Wonderland ($40.8M), The Jungle Book ($32M), and Cinderella ($23M). It’s on track for a $44M weekend, and may not hit $150M in the US, a tough result for a film with $300M+ in production/marketing costs, and one whose brand may not have instant appeal overseas. On top of that, it faces strong competition just a few days away when Shazam opens.
No one expected US (Blumhouse/Perfect World/Universal) to duplicate Get Out‘s amazing 26% Friday-to-Friday drop, and Us is more frontloaded, down 65% from last Friday to $10.3M. That’s in the range of the 62% drop for It, and between the 57% for The Conjuring and the 70% for 2018’s Halloween. It should have a $35M weekend, and still has a chance of reaching $200M in the US, although next week’s Pet Sematary may hasten its decline.
CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) had a solid hold on its 3rd Friday, down 40% to $5.5M, for a likely $20M weekend. That would be similar to the 41% Weekend 3 drop for Black Panther, and better than the 46% for Avengers: Infinity War and the 50% for Spider-Man: Homecoming. Captain Marvel remains on course for $390-400M in the US, although its trajectory will be a bit unique, since the onslaught of Avengers: Endgame is already beginning to assemble for an opening less than 4 weeks away.
FIVE FEET APART (CBS/Lionsgate) has found its target audience, and declined just 26% from last Friday to $2M, for a $6.5M weekend that suggests it could reach $50M in the US. If it finds an international audience, that could make it a profitable venture.
The anti-abortion drama UNPLANNED (Pure Flix) is also hitting its target in a low-wide release at 1059 theatres. Its $2.5M Friday is similar to the $2.9M for God’s Not Dead 2 (at more than double the number of theatres), although its overtly political nature may make it more frontloaded than the usual Christian product, for a $6M weekend and $15M US total.
WONDER PARK (Nickelodeon/Paramount) slid 44% to $1.2M on its 3rd Friday, on its way to a $4.5M weekend and a US total that probably won’t reach $50M.
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) wasn’t hurt by the arrival of Dumbo, down 33% on its 6th Friday to $1.1M, as it heads toward a $4M weekend and $160M US total.
HOTEL MUMBAI (Bleecker Street) jumped from 4 theatres to 924, for a so-so $1.1M on Friday and a $3M weekend, with uncertain prospects for additional expansion.
MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL (Lionsgate) lost 40% on its 5th Friday to $700K, on track for a $2.5M weekend and a $75M US total.
THE BEACH BUM (Neon) is shaping up as the weekend’s disaster even in a low-wide release at 1015 theatres, with a $700K Friday that’s far below the $2.1M opening day for director Harmony Korine’s Spring Breakers (in a similar 1104-theatre release). Word of mouth is unlikely to be kind, which may mean a weekend under $2M and a US total that won’t see $10M.
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