March 30, 2019

EARLY FRIDAY BOX OFFICE: “Dumbo” Flies Low, “Unplanned” OK, “Hotel Mumbai” & “The Beach Bum” Dim


The Disney machine is hitting an atypical pothole with DUMBO (Disney), which according to preliminary numbers at Deadline had a $14.8M Friday ($2.6M of that from Thursday night).  That’s very much on the low end of the studio’s live-action remakes of its own animated classics, behind the opening days for Beauty & The Beast ($63.8M), Alice In Wonderland ($40.8M), The Jungle Book ($32M), and Cinderella ($23M).  It’s on track for a $44M weekend, and may not hit $150M in the US, a tough result for a film with $300M+ in production/marketing costs, and one whose brand may not have instant appeal overseas.  On top of that, it faces strong competition just a few days away when Shazam opens.

No one expected US (Blumhouse/Perfect World/Universal) to duplicate Get Out‘s amazing 26% Friday-to-Friday drop, and Us is more frontloaded, down 65% from last Friday to $10.3M.  That’s in the range of the 62% drop for It, and between the 57% for The Conjuring and the 70% for 2018’s Halloween.  It should have a $35M weekend, and still has a chance of reaching $200M in the US, although next week’s Pet Sematary may hasten its decline.

CAPTAIN MARVEL (Marvel/Disney) had a solid hold on its 3rd Friday, down 40% to $5.5M, for a likely $20M weekend.  That would be similar to the 41% Weekend 3 drop for Black Panther, and better than the 46% for Avengers: Infinity War and the 50% for Spider-Man: HomecomingCaptain Marvel remains on course for $390-400M in the US, although its trajectory will be a bit unique, since the onslaught of Avengers: Endgame is already beginning to assemble for an opening less than 4 weeks away.

FIVE FEET APART (CBS/Lionsgate) has found its target audience, and declined just 26% from last Friday to $2M, for a $6.5M weekend that suggests it could reach $50M in the US.  If it finds an international audience, that could make it a profitable venture.

The anti-abortion drama UNPLANNED (Pure Flix) is also hitting its target in a low-wide release at 1059 theatres.  Its $2.5M Friday is similar to the $2.9M for God’s Not Dead 2 (at more than double the number of theatres), although its overtly political nature may make it more frontloaded than the usual Christian product, for a $6M weekend and $15M US total.

WONDER PARK (Nickelodeon/Paramount) slid 44% to $1.2M on its 3rd Friday, on its way to a $4.5M weekend and a US total that probably won’t reach $50M.

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD (DreamWorks Animation/Universal) wasn’t hurt by the arrival of Dumbo, down 33% on its 6th Friday to $1.1M, as it heads toward a $4M weekend and $160M US total.

HOTEL MUMBAI (Bleecker Street) jumped from 4 theatres to 924, for a so-so $1.1M on Friday and a $3M weekend, with uncertain prospects for additional expansion.

MADEA FAMILY FUNERAL (Lionsgate) lost 40% on its 5th Friday to $700K, on track for a $2.5M weekend and a $75M US total.

THE BEACH BUM (Neon) is shaping up as the weekend’s disaster even in a low-wide release at 1015 theatres, with a $700K Friday that’s far below the $2.1M opening day for director Harmony Korine’s Spring Breakers (in a similar 1104-theatre release).  Word of mouth is unlikely to be kind, which may mean a weekend under $2M and a US total that won’t see $10M.



About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."