January 3, 2015

FRIDAY 1.2.2015 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #1 of 2015 looks like $140 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up from the norm for this weekend and up somewhat from the same weekend last year.  

Opening at 2,602 theaters Friday, The Woman in Black 2 from Relativity is on track for a $16.0 million opening three-day weekend (above our $9.8 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $6,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is frightening (24% positive overall and a terrifying 14% positive with top critics). Woman in Black 2 is headed for $37 million total domestic.

In limited release, American Sniper continues to rampage in its second weekend with an estimated $161,200 per theater average (again at 4 theaters).  Selma is headed for a second weekend average of $27,900 per theater at 22 theaters (up from 19 last week).  In its fourth weekend, Inherent Vice is averaging $15,600 per theater at 16 theaters (same as last week’s count).

Weekend 1: January 2-4, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies WB [23.5] 22.3 8.4 309
Unbroken Uni [20.2] 19.6 7.4 155
Into the Woods Dis [20.9] 18.3 7.5 154
Woman in Black 2 Rel [9.8] 16.0 7.8 37
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb Fox [14.5] 15.3 5.9 144
Annie Sony [11.9] 12.3 4.6 108
The Imitation Game Weins [6.9] 8.1 2.9 69
Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 LG/Sum [7.3] 8.0 3.0 352
The Gambler Par [5.7] 6.6 2.6 56
Big Hero 6 Dis [4.3] 4.8 1.9 225
Wild Fox S [4.2] 4.8 1.7 40

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies is headed for $22.3 million this weekend (down -46% from last weekend and near our $23.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $309 million.

Unbroken is headed for $19.6 million this weekend (down -36% from last weekend and near our $20.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $155 million.

Into the Woods is headed for $18.3 million this weekend (down -41% from last weekend and slightly below our $20.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $154 million.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $140 million total Friday-Sunday, up +17% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +9% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 1 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $140 Woman in Black 2 $16.0
2014 $128 Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones $18.3
2013 $124 Texas Chainsaw 3D $21.7, Promised Land $4.0
2012 $126 The Devil Inside $33.7, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $5.5
2011 $99 Season of the Witch $10.6, Country Strong $7.3
Avg 2011-14 $119

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.