Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #4 of 2015 looks like $143 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well above the norm for the fourth weekend of the year, which usually struggles to get above $100 million. (See complete weekend track below.) All credit goes to American Sniper, which is truly extraordinary. As for the three openers, they range from positively ordinary to completely feckless.
Opening at 2,602 theaters Friday, The Boy Next Door from Universal is on track for a $15.7 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $14.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a slightly above average $6,000 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is harsh (13% positive overall and a similar 14% positive with top critics). The Boy Next Door is headed for $40 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,020 theaters Friday, Strange Magic from Disney is on track for a $5.0 million opening three-day weekend (also well under our $9.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a DOA $1,650 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is hateful for this animated film (11% positive overall and a rough 8% positive with top critics). Strange Magic is headed for $9 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,648 theaters Friday, Mortdecai from Lionsgate/Summit is on track for a $4.5 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a similarly deadly $1,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also harsh, making it a trifecta of critical scorn this weekend (13% positive overall and 18% positive with top critics). Mortdecai is headed for $8 million total domestic.
|
Weekend 4: January 23-25, 2015 |
($ millions) |
|
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast |
Early Weekend Estimate |
Actual Friday Gross |
Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. |
|
American Sniper |
WB |
[48.5] |
65.0 |
18.3 |
375 |
|
The Boy Next Door |
Uni |
[14.5] |
15.7 |
5.7 |
40 |
|
Paddington |
Weins |
[12.3] |
12.4 |
2.6 |
79 |
|
The Wedding Ringer |
Sony |
[11.3] |
10.9 |
3.3 |
65 |
|
Taken 3 |
Fox |
[7.4] |
7.5 |
2.1 |
90 |
|
The Imitation Game |
Weins |
[5.2] |
7.5 |
1.9 |
80 |
|
Selma |
Par |
[5.6] |
5.5 |
1.5 |
63 |
|
Strange Magic |
Dis |
[9.0] |
5.0 |
1.3 |
9 |
|
Mortdecai |
LG/Sum |
[9.5] |
4.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
|
Into the Woods |
Dis |
[4.2] |
4.2 |
.96 |
137 |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
American Sniper is headed for $65.0 million this weekend (down -27% from last weekend but way above our $48.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $375 million.
Paddington is headed for $12.4 million this weekend (down -35% from last weekend and very close to our $12.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $79 million.
The Wedding Ringer is headed for $10.9 million this weekend (down -47% from last weekend and also near our $11.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $65 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $143 million total Friday-Sunday, up a huge +52% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +46% from the same weekend last year.
|
WEEKEND 4 |
($ millions) |
|
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films |
Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) |
|
2015 |
$143 |
Boy Next Door $15.7, Strange Magic $5.0, Mortdecai $4.5 |
|
2014 |
$98 |
I, Frankenstein $8.6 |
|
2013 |
$88 |
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters $19.7, Parker $7.0, Movie 43 $4.8 |
|
2012 |
$98 |
The Grey $19.7, One for the Money $11.5, Man on a Ledge $8.0 |
|
2011 |
$92 |
No Strings Attached $19.7 |
|
Avg 2011-14 |
$94 |
|
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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