Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #2 of 2015 looks like $110 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down from the norm for this weekend and down from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 3,593 theaters Friday, Taken 3 from Fox is on track for a $39.5 million opening three-day weekend (above our $30.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $10,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is hostile (10% positive overall and 16% positive with top critics). Taken 3 is headed for $106 million total domestic.
Widening to 2,179 theaters Friday, Selma from Paramount is on track for a $12.0 million opening three-day weekend (below our $18.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $5,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is nearly universal (98% positive overall and 100% positive with top critics). Selma is headed for $49 million total domestic.
Expanding to 645 theaters Friday, Inherent Vice from Warner Brothers is on track for a $3.0 million opening three-day weekend (near our $2.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $4,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is somewhat positive (68% positive overall and 68% positive with top critics). Inherent Vice is headed for $16 million total domestic.
In limited release, American Sniper continues to play at 4 theaters for the third weekend in a row in New York and Los Angeles only, suffering its first per theater decline: down -17% to a still epic $140,000 per theater weekend average. Through Sunday, the film should total $3.16 million as it prepares to go wide on Friday.
| Weekend 2: January 9-11, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Taken 3 | Fox | [30.5] | 39.5 | 14.7 | 106 | |
| Selma | Par | [18.5] | 12.0 | 3.8 | 49 | |
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | [10.8] | 9.5 | 2.5 | 285 | |
| Into the Woods | Dis | [10.8] | 9.4 | 2.5 | 130 | |
| Unbroken | Uni | [10.1] | 8.5 | 2.6 | 125 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | [7.8] | 8.0 | 2.1 | 59 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | [7.8] | 5.9 | 1.6 | 124 | |
| Woman in Black 2 | Rel | [5.1] | 4.5 | 1.5 | 28 | |
| Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | [4.5] | 3.7 | 1.1 | 340 | |
| Annie | Sony | [6.0] | 3.6 | 1.0 | 93 | |
| Inherent Vice | WB | [2.5] | 3.0 | .96 | 16 | |
| Wild | Fox S | [—] | 2.7 | .81 | 38 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Unbroken is headed for $8.5 million this weekend (down -53% from last weekend and below our $10.1 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $125 million.
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies is headed for $9.5 million this weekend (down -56% from last weekend and somewhat below our $10.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $285 million.
Into the Woods is headed for $9.4 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and somewhat below our $10.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $130 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $110 million total Friday-Sunday, down -7% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -10% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 2 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $110 | Taken 3 $39.5, Selma $12.0, Inherent Vice $3.0 | |
| 2014 | $122 | Lone Survivor $37.8, Legend of Hercules $8.9, August: Osage County $7.2 | |
| 2013 | $121 | Zero Dark Thirty $24.4, A Haunted House $18.1, Gangster Squad $17.1 | |
| 2012 | $115 | Contraband $24.3, Beauty and the Beast $17.8, Joyful Noise $11.2 | |
| 2011 | $115 | Season of the Witch $10.6, Country Strong $7.3 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $119 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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