Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #45 of 2014 looks like $154 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up 10% the norm for this weekend ($140 million) but down slightly (-4%) from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 3,561 theaters, Interstellar from Paramount grossed $17.0 million Friday and is on track for a $54 million opening three-day weekend (below our $64.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward $15,200 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is positive bordering on polite (72% positive overall and 70% positive with top critics). Interstellar is headed for $156 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,761 theaters, Big Hero 6 from Disney grossed $15.8 million Friday and is on track for a $57.5 million opening three-day weekend (exactly hitting our $57.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a similar $15,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very positive (91% positive overall and 89% positive with top critics) and should help keep this film humming in future weeks. Big Hero 6 is headed for $196 million total domestic.
Gone Girl is headed for $6.0 million this weekend (down 29% from last weekend and near our $5.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Gone Girl has been adjusted to $165 million.
Ouija is headed for $5.8 million this weekend (down 46% from last weekend but above our $5.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Ouija has been adjusted to $54 million.
St. Vincent is headed for $5.6 million this weekend (down 23% from last weekend and somewhat above our $5.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for St. Vincent has been adjusted to $43 million.
Fury is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down 38% from last weekend and near our $5.2 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Fury has been adjusted to $84 million.
Nightcrawler is headed for $5.4 million this weekend (down 48% from last weekend and slightly below our $5.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Nightcrawler has been adjusted to $36 million.
| Weekend 45: November 7-9, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | [57.5] | 57.5 | 15.8 | 196 | |
| Interstellar | Par | [64.5] | 54.0 | 17.0 | 156 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [5.8] | 6.0 | 1.9 | 165 | |
| Ouija | Uni | [5.1] | 5.8 | 1.9 | 54 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | [5.1] | 5.6 | 1.6 | 43 | |
| Fury | Sony | [5.2] | 5.5 | 1.7 | 84 | |
| Nightcrawler | OpenRoad | [5.8] | 5.4 | 1.7 | 36 | |
| John Wick | LG/Sum | [4.1] | 4.1 | 1.2 | 48 | |
| Alexander and the Terrible… | Dis | [3.9] | 3.4 | .92 | 69 | |
| The Book of Life | Fox | [4.2] | 2.8 | .66 | 53 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $154 million total Friday-Sunday, up 10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 4% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 45 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $154 | Big Hero 6 $57.5, Interstellar $54.0 | |
| 2013 | $160 | Thor: The Dark World $85.7, About Time $4.8 | |
| 2012 | $163 | Skyfall $88.4 | |
| 2011 | $126 | Immortals $32.2, Jack and Jill $25.0, J. Edgar $11.2 | |
| 2010 | $112 | Megamind $46.0, Due Date $32.7, For Colored Girls $19.5 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $140 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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