November 10, 2013

Weekend Studio Estimates NOVEMBER 8-10

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #45 of 2013 looks like $161 million for the top 12 films, not the record we had forecast but still 21% above the recent average for this weekend.

Opening at 3,841 theaters Friday, Thor: The Dark World from Disney and Marvel grossed $31.6 million Friday and $31.7 million Saturday, now on track for a $86.1 million opening weekend (stronger than it appeared yesterday but still below the bullish $95.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $22,400 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is all over the place (66% positive overall at RottenTomatoes but only 38% positive with top critics). Thor: The Dark World is headed for $202 million total domestic, above the $181.0 million domestic total for Thor which opened with $65.7 million the weekend of May 6-8, 2011.

Expanding to 1,200 theaters Friday, About Time from Universal grossed $1.5 million Friday and $1.9 million Saturday, now pacing toward a $5.2 million first wide weekend (somewhat below our $6.5 million forecast). The film is headed for a mediocre $4,300 per theater average for the weekend. Through Sunday, the film should total $6.7 million, including the one-week preview at 175 theaters.  Critical sentiment is fairly positive (66% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 53% positive with top critics). About Time is headed for $16 million total domestic.

Last Vegas (down 32% in its second weekend) has been upgraded to $62 million total domestic, while Ender’s Game (down 62% in its second weekend) has been downgraded to $64 million. Free Birds (down 29% this weekend) is holding relatively steady at $56 million total domestic.  12 Years a Slave is now looking like a $40 million total domestic, although that will be adjusted upward again in a few weeks with the inevitable long list of awards nominations.

Weekend 45: November 8-10, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Thor: The Dark World Dis [95.5] 84.3 86.1 31.6–31.7 202
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Par [11.1] 11.4 11.3 3.4–4.8 111
Free Birds Rel [9.8] 11.3 11.2 2.6–5.0 56
Last Vegas CBS [10.9] 11.1 11.1 3.2–4.8 62
Ender’s Game LG/Sum [11.4] 10.1 10.3 2.9–4.5 64
Gravity WB [7.8] 8.6 8.4 2.3–3.9 259
12 Years a Slave Fox S [8.6] 6.9 6.6 1.9–2.9 40
Captain Phillips Sony [5.5] 5.7 5.8 1.6–2.5 107
About Time Uni [6.5] 5.3 5.2 1.5–1.9 16
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony [2.5] 2.6 2.8 .59–1.3 117

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $161 million total Friday-Sunday, up 21% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 2% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 45 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $161 Thor: The Dark World $86.1, About Time $5.2
2012 $163 Skyfall $88.4
2011 $126 Immortals $32.2, Jack and Jill $25.0, J. Edgar $11.2
2010 $112 Unstoppable $22.7, Skyline $11.7, Morning Glory $9.2
2009 $129 2012 $65.2, Pirate Radio $2.9
Avg 2009-12 $133

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.