Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #16 of 2015 looks like $105 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat below the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,633 theaters Friday, Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 from Sony is on track for a $22.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly below our $24.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a slightly above average $6,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes, however, is historically bad (a rare 0% positive overall and 0% positive with top critics). Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 is headed for $66 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,739 theaters Friday, Unfriended from Universal is on track for a $16.2 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $19.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a slightly above average $5,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is fairly positive (66% positive overall and 67% positive with top critics). Unfriended is headed for $45 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,012 theaters Friday, Monkey Kingdom from Disney is on track for a $4.7 million opening three-day weekend (near our $5.3 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a low $2,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very strong (93% positive overall and 95% positive with top critics). Monkey Kingdom is headed for $21 million total domestic.
In limited release, True Story from Fox Searchlight is headed for a low $2,286 per theater for the weekend at 831 theaters ($1.9 million for the weekend).
Child 44 from Lionsgate/Summit is headed for a very low opening weekend average of $1,373 per theater at 510 theaters (for a $700,000 opening weekend).
| Weekend 16: April 17-19, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Furious 7 | Uni | [30.3] | 25.5 | 8.3 | 352 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | [24.5] | 22.0 | 7.3 | 66 | |
| Unfriended | Uni | [19.5] | 16.2 | 6.8 | 45 | |
| Home | Fox/DWA | [11.8] | 10.4 | 2.4 | 165 | |
| The Longest Ride | Fox | [6.9] | 7.5 | 2.4 | 40 | |
| Monkey Kingdom | Dis | [5.3] | 4.7 | 1.6 | 21 | |
| Get Hard | WB | [4.7] | 4.5 | 1.4 | 85 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | [4.0] | 4.1 | 1.3 | 26 | |
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | [3.8] | 3.7 | 1.2 | 127 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | [4.5] | 3.4 | 1.1 | 195 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Furious 7 is headed for $25.5 million this weekend (down -57% from last weekend and somewhat below our $30.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $352 million.
Home is headed for $10.4 million this weekend (down -44% from last weekend and a touch below our $11.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $165 million.
The Longest Ride is headed for $7.5 million this weekend (down -42% from last weekend and a touch above our $6.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $40 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $105 million total Friday-Sunday, down -11% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -15% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 16 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $105 | Paul Blart Mall Cop 2 $25.5 Unfriended $16.2, Monkey Kingdom $4.7 | |
| 2014 | $124 | Heaven Is for Real $22.5, Transcendence $10.9, A Haunted House 2 $8.8, Bears $4.8 | |
| 2013 | $100 | Oblivion $37.1 | |
| 2012 | $126 | Think Like a Man $33.6, The Lucky One $22.5, Chimpanzee $10.7 | |
| 2011 | $121 | Rio $39.2, Scream 4 $18.7 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $118 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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