Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #31 of 2015 looks like $143 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, near the norm for this weekend (see track below).
Opening at 3,956 theaters Friday, Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation from Paramount is on track for a $55.0 million opening three-day weekend (matching our $55.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a well above average $13,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is very strong (93% positive overall and 94% positive with top critics). M:I Rogue Nation is headed for $166 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,411 theaters Wednesday, Vacation from Warner Brothers is on track for a $13.9 million opening three-day weekend and $20 million Wednesday-Sunday (below our $21.5 million three-day and $28 million five-day forecasts earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a sub-par $4,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak (24% positive overall and 26% positive with top critics). Vacation is headed for $45 million total domestic.
| Weekend 31: July 31-Aug 2, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [55.0] | 55.0 | 20.4 | 166 | |
| Vacation | WB | [21.5] | 13.9 | 4.5 | 45 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | [12.7] | 12.4 | 3.6 | 170 | |
| Minions | Uni | [11.8] | 12.0 | 3.6 | 329 | |
| Pixels | Sony | [10.8] | 10.3 | 3.2 | 67 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | [11.3] | 9.5 | 2.9 | 111 | |
| Southpaw | Weins | [8.8] | 7.5 | 2.3 | 50 | |
| Paper Towns | Fox | [5.2] | 4.6 | 1.6 | 34 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | [4.8] | 4.4 | 1.3 | 349 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | [4.6] | 3.6 | 1.0 | 655 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Ant-Man is headed for $12.4 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and near our $12.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $170 million.
Minions is headed for $12.0 million this weekend (down -48% from last weekend and near our $11.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $329 million.
Pixels is headed for $10.3 million this weekend (down -57% from last weekend and a touch below our $10.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $67 million.
Trainwreck is headed for $9.5 million this weekend (down -45% from last weekend and below our $11.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $111 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $143 million total Friday-Sunday, very close to (+1% above) the average for the comparable weekend and down -17% from the same weekend last year, which launched Guardians of the Galaxy.
| WEEKEND 31 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $143 | Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation $55.0, Vacation $13.9 | |
| 2014 | $172 | Guardians of the Galaxy $94.3, Get On Up $13.6 | |
| 2013 | $123 | 2 Guns $27.1, The Smurfs 2 $17.5 | |
| 2012 | $114 | Total Recall $25.6, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days $14.6 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $142 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
About the Author
