Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #33 of 2015 looks like $132 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat above the norm for this weekend (see track below).
Opening at 2,757 theaters Friday, Straight Outta Compton from Universal is on track for a $59.0 million opening three-day weekend (well above our $45.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a terrific $21,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is quite positive (88% positive overall and 78% positive with top critics). Straight Outta Compton is headed for $176 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,638 theaters Friday, The Man from U.N.C.L.E. from Warner Brothers is on track for a $12.9 million opening three-day weekend (below our $18.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a light $3,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is positive overall but mediocre with elite critics (68% positive overall and 48% positive with top critics). The Man from U.N.C.L.E. is headed for $32 million total domestic.
| Weekend 33: August 14-16, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | [45.5] | 59.0 | 24.2 | 176 | |
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [15.7] | 17.1 | 4.9 | 189 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | [18.0] | 12.9 | 4.9 | 32 | |
| Fantastic Four | Fox | [8.2] | 7.6 | 2.4 | 52 | |
| The Gift | STX | [6.4] | 6.3 | 1.9 | 40 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | [4.5] | 5.3 | 1.5 | 174 | |
| Vacation | WB | [5.2] | 5.1 | 1.5 | 60 | |
| Minions | Uni | [4.4] | 4.7 | 1.4 | 329 | |
| Ricki and the Flash | Sony | [4.3] | 4.4 | 1.3 | 26 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | [4.4] | 3.8 | 1.2 | 111 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $17.1 million this weekend (down -40% from last weekend and somewhat above our $15.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $189 million.
Fantastic Four is headed for $7.6 million this weekend (down -70% from last weekend and slightly below our $8.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $52 million.
The Gift is headed for $6.3 million this weekend (down -47% from last weekend and near our $6.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $40 million.
Ant-Man is headed for $5.3 million this weekend (down -33% from last weekend and somewhat above our $4.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $174 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $132 million total Friday-Sunday, up +9% from the average for the comparable weekend and up +3% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 33 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $132 | Straight Outta Compton $59.0, Man from U.N.C.L.E. $12.9 | |
| 2014 | $129 | Let’s Be Cops $17.8, The Expendables 3 $15.9, The Giver $12.3 | |
| 2013 | $121 | Lee Daniels’ The Butler $24.6, Kick-Ass 2 $13.3, Jobs $6.7 | |
| 2012 | $127 | The Expendables 2 $28.6, ParaNorman $14.1, Sparkle $11.6, Odd Life of Timothy Green $10.8 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $121 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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