Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #35 of 2015 looks like $63 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, well below the norm for this weekend and reaching into record low territory (see track below).
Opening at 1,135 theaters Friday, War Room from Sony is on track for a $10.5 million opening three-day weekend (double our $5.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a robust $9,300 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is not supportive (18% positive overall and 20% positive with top critics). War Room is headed for $26 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,355 theaters Wednesday, No Escape from Weinstein Company is on track for a $7.2 million opening three-day weekend (near our $7.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a very low $2,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (40% positive overall and 35% positive with top critics). No Escape is headed for $17 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,333 theaters Friday, We Are Your Friends from Warner Brothers is on track for a $1.9 million opening three-day weekend (far below our $9.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a catastrophic $800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is also mediocre (42% positive overall and 44% positive with top critics). We Are Your Friends is headed for $3 million total domestic.
| Weekend 35: August 28-30, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | [15.3] | 12.3 | 3.8 | 168 | |
| War Room | Sony | [5.5] | 10.5 | 3.9 | 26 | |
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [8.2] | 7.5 | 2.2 | 195 | |
| No Escape | Weins | [7.0] | 7.2 | 2.4 | 17 | |
| Sinister 2 | Foc | [3.8] | 4.3 | 1.4 | 21 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | [4.2] | 4.2 | 1.3 | 45 | |
| Hitman: Agent 47 | Fox | [3.6] | 3.6 | 1.1 | 19 | |
| The Gift | STX | [2.8] | 2.8 | .83 | 43 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | [2.9] | 2.7 | .77 | 178 | |
| American Ultra | LG | [—] | 2.5 | .82 | 15 | |
| Minions | Uni | [—] | 2.3 | n/a | 331 | |
| We Are Your Friends | WB | [9.0] | 1.9 | .73 | 3 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Straight Outta Compton is headed for $12.3 million this weekend (down -53% from last weekend and somewhat below our $15.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $168 million.
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $7.5 million this weekend (down -35% from last weekend and slightly below our $8.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $195 million.
Sinister 2 is headed for $4.3 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and slightly above our $3.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $21 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a dreadful $63 million total Friday-Sunday, down -28% from the average for the comparable weekend and down -29% from the same weekend last year. This should be a record low for this calendar weekend and much more like a Labor Day weekend (which has averaged $59 million in recent years).
| WEEKEND 35 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $63 | War Room $10.5, No Escape $7.2, We Are Your Friends $1.9 | |
| 2014 | $88 | As Above/So Below $8.6, The November Man $7.9 | |
| 2013 | $93 | One Direction: This Is Us $15.8, Instructions Not Included $7.8, Getaway $4.5 | |
| 2012 | $86 | The Possession $17.7, Lawless $10.0, Oogieloves…Big Balloon Adventure $0.4 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $87 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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