FRIDAY 9.25.2015 Box Office Report

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Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #39 of 2015 looks like $124 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, significantly above the norm for the weekend (see track below).

Opening at 3,754 theaters Friday, Hotel Transylvania 2 from Sony is on track for a $48.0 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $37.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a very solid $12,800 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (45% positive overall and an even softer 38% positive with top critics) but that shouldn’t matter for this animated sequel. The film is headed for $161 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,305 theaters Friday, The Intern from Warner Brothers is on track for a $17.0 million opening three-day weekend (near our $18.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a mediocre $5,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is slightly positive (55% positive overall and an even 50% positive with top critics). The film is headed for $62 million total domestic.

Opening at 1,540 theaters Friday, The Green Inferno from High Top Releasing is heading for a $3.5 million opening weekend (somewhat above our $2.8 million forecast).  The film is pacing toward a weak $2,300 per theater for the weekend.  Weak critical response: 38% positive overall and 25% positive with top critics.  The film is headed for maybe $7 million total domestic.

Sicario from Lionsgate is headed for a terrific $28,800 per theater at 59 theaters in its second weekend (a $1.7 million opening weekend — well below our flawed forecast which was based on a higher, incorrect theater count).  Great critical support: 92% positive review overall and 90% positive with top critics.

Pawn Sacrifice from Bleecker Street expanded to 748 theaters in its second weekend and is headed for a crash-and-burn weekend average of $1,300 per theater ($1.05 million for the weekend and $1.35 million total through Sunday).

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Maze Runner: Scorch Trials is headed for $13.8 million this weekend (down -54% from last weekend and very near our $14.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $83 million.

Everest is headed for $12.1 million this weekend (up +68% from last weekend as it expands but way below our bullish $21.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $59 million.

Black Mass is headed for $11.0 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and slightly below our $13.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $71 million.

Total Box Office Volume