Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #36 of 2015 looks like $63 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, actually fairly good versus the norm for the dreadful Labor Day weekend (see track below).
Opening at 1,960 theaters Wednesday, A Walk in the Woods from Broad Green Pictures is on track for a $7.7 million opening three-day weekend and $9.7 million Wednesday-Sunday (well above our $4.2 million and $6.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecasts earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a soft $3,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre (48% positive overall and 52% positive with top critics). A Walk in the Woods is headed for $27 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,434 theaters Friday, Transporter Refueled from EuropaCorp is on track for a $6.5 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $7.8 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a very bad $1,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak (17% positive overall and 19% positive with top critics). Transporter Refueled is headed for $15 million total domestic.
| Weekend 36: September 4-6, 2015 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| War Room | Sony | [7.4] | 9.3 | 2.3 | 47 | |
| Straight Outta Compton | Uni | [8.8] | 9.0 | 2.2 | 172 | |
| A Walk in the Woods | BG | [4.2] | 7.7 | 2.2 | 27 | |
| Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation | Par | [6.9] | 7.5 | 1.7 | 204 | |
| Transporter Refueled | Eur | [7.8] | 6.5 | 2.4 | 15 | |
| No Escape | Weins | [4.6] | 5.0 | 1.3 | 29 | |
| The Man from U.N.C.L.E. | WB | [2.8] | 3.6 | .84 | 47 | |
| Sinister 2 | Foc | [2.5] | 3.2 | .89 | 26 | |
| Ant-Man | Dis | [2.5] | 2.8 | .63 | 178 | |
| Minions | Uni | [—] | 2.8 | n/a | 331 | |
| The Gift | STX | [—] | 2.3 | .64 | 45 | |
| Hitman: Agent 47 | Fox | [2.3] | 1.9 | n/a | 21 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
War Room is headed for $9.3 million this weekend (down -18% from last weekend and above our $7.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $47 million.
Straight Outta Compton is headed for $9.0 million this weekend (down -31% from last weekend and near our $8.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $172 million.
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $7.5 million this weekend (down -8% from last weekend and slightly above our $6.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $204 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a relatively decent $63 million total Friday-Sunday, up +8% from the average for the comparable weekend and up 23% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 36 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $63 | A Walk in the Woods $7.7, Transporter Refueled $6.5 | |
| 2014 | $51 | The Identical $1.6 | |
| 2013 | $66 | Riddick $19.0 | |
| 2012 | $52 | The Words $4.8, The Cold Light of Day $1.8 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $59 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
About the Author
