FRIDAY APR 1 NUMBERS: Hop Surprisingly Strong

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Based on Friday’s numbers, Hop is blowing past the ShowbuzzDaily Forecast, according to preliminary weekend estimates.  While not quite the $56 million opening for Despicable Me and certainly not the shocking opening of Fast & Furious, the sighs of relief and muted cheers can be heard from Universal City.  Source Code is coming in a tick below Forecast, while Insidous is a tick above.  By the time international box office and home exhibition receipts are tallied, all three films should be profitable.   Down a preliminary 58% in its second week, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules has been downgraded somewhat in terms of its Showbuzz Domestic Ultimate estimate.  Limitless continues to perform well for a week three movie and is locking in on an $85 million Showbuzz Domestic Ultimate.  On Tuesday we will have a better view of the international appeal of Limitless. 

April 1-3, 2011                            Showbuzz
                        Showbuzz   Early   Domestic
                        Forecast   Proj.   Ultimate
Hop (Uni)                $24.5     $39.0     $131
Source Code (Sum)        $15       $14.0     $ 43
Insidious (FilmDis)      $10.5     $11.8     $ 28
Diary Wimpy Kid 2 (Fox)  $11.5     $10.0     $ 58 (downgrade)
Limitless (Rel)          $10       $ 9.7     $ 85
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)      $ 8       $ 7.8     $ 64
Sucker Punch (WB)        $ 7.5     $ 5.8     $ 37

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total.  About the same as “an average” comparable weekend the last four years, but remember the average is composed of two very low weekends in 2007 and 2008 ($110 and $80 million, respectively) and two very strong weekends in 2009 and 2010 ($149 and $169 million, respectively).  Versus this weekend last year, this weekend is down a stunning 26% (when Clash of the Titans and Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too both opened successfully — an example of perfect counterprogramming.  Check out yesterday’s post on Movie Scheduling if you haven;t seen it yet. 

Top 12 Films: First Weekend in April

     Volume
2011  $125  (-1% vs 2007-10 average; -26% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $127  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $169  Clash Titans $61, Why Married Too $29, Last Song $16
2009  $149  Fast & Furious $71, Adventureland $6 
2008  $ 80  Nim’s Island $13, Leatherheads $13, The Ruins $8
2007  $110  Are We Done Yet? $14, Grindhouse $12, The Reaping $10