April 2, 2011

FRIDAY APR 1 NUMBERS: Hop Surprisingly Strong

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Written by: Mitch Salem
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Based on Friday’s numbers, Hop is blowing past the ShowbuzzDaily Forecast, according to preliminary weekend estimates.  While not quite the $56 million opening for Despicable Me and certainly not the shocking opening of Fast & Furious, the sighs of relief and muted cheers can be heard from Universal City.  Source Code is coming in a tick below Forecast, while Insidous is a tick above.  By the time international box office and home exhibition receipts are tallied, all three films should be profitable.   Down a preliminary 58% in its second week, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules has been downgraded somewhat in terms of its Showbuzz Domestic Ultimate estimate.  Limitless continues to perform well for a week three movie and is locking in on an $85 million Showbuzz Domestic Ultimate.  On Tuesday we will have a better view of the international appeal of Limitless

April 1-3, 2011                            Showbuzz
                        Showbuzz   Early   Domestic
                        Forecast   Proj.   Ultimate
Hop (Uni)                $24.5     $39.0     $131
Source Code (Sum)        $15       $14.0     $ 43
Insidious (FilmDis)      $10.5     $11.8     $ 28
Diary Wimpy Kid 2 (Fox)  $11.5     $10.0     $ 58 (downgrade)
Limitless (Rel)          $10       $ 9.7     $ 85
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)      $ 8       $ 7.8     $ 64
Sucker Punch (WB)        $ 7.5     $ 5.8     $ 37

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total.  About the same as “an average” comparable weekend the last four years, but remember the average is composed of two very low weekends in 2007 and 2008 ($110 and $80 million, respectively) and two very strong weekends in 2009 and 2010 ($149 and $169 million, respectively).  Versus this weekend last year, this weekend is down a stunning 26% (when Clash of the Titans and Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too both opened successfully — an example of perfect counterprogramming.  Check out yesterday’s post on Movie Scheduling if you haven;t seen it yet. 

Top 12 Films: First Weekend in April

2011  $125  (-1% vs 2007-10 average; -26% vs 2010) 

Avg   $127  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $169  Clash Titans $61, Why Married Too $29, Last Song $16
2009  $149  Fast & Furious $71, Adventureland $6 
2008  $ 80  Nim’s Island $13, Leatherheads $13, The Ruins $8
2007  $110  Are We Done Yet? $14, Grindhouse $12, The Reaping $10

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers. 

–Mitch Metcalf

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."