April 13, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #15 of 2013 is looking like $104 million for the top 12 films, down just a few percentage points from the same weekend in prior years.  Two films opened this weekend.  A sports drama period piece (not a guaranteed success) exceeded expectations and will be a strong #1, while a tired franchise squeezed out a final installment and the audience largely stayed away.

Opening at 3,003 theaters Friday, 42 from Warner Brothers grossed $9.1 million Friday and is on track for a $27.6 million opening weekend (well above the $19.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a very solid $9,200 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), while critical sentiment is supportive: 76% positive at RottenTomatoes (although slightly less positive — 70% — with top critics).  42 is headed for $85 million total domestic.  The film is not perfect but the story is a great one, and credit Warner Brothers marketing with good TV spots and saturation buys on baseball and sports channels the last 10 days.  

Opening at 3,402 theaters Friday, Scary Movie V from Weinstein/Dimension grossed $5.5 million Friday and is on pace for a $14.6 million opening weekend (below the $16.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging a lame $4,300 per theater for the weekend.  Critics are hostile: 6% positive reviews.  A movie that has very little reason to even exist, Scary Movie V should finish with $32 million total domestic (well below Scary Movie 4, which grossed $90.7 million domestic when it opened to $40.2 million seven years ago, April 14-16, 2006).

Weekend 15 April 12-14, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
42 WB [19.0] 27.6 9.1 85
Scary Movie V Weins [16.5] 14.6 5.5 32
The Croods DW/Fox [14.3] 11.5 3.1 170
G.I. Joe: Retaliation Par [11.8] 9.7 2.9 126
Evil Dead Sony [10.4] 9.1 3.2 58
Jurassic Park 3D Uni [9.3] 8.6 2.4 52
Olympus Has Fallen FilmDis [6.6] 6.6 2.0 95
Oz the Great and Powerful Dis [5.1] 4.4 1.2 231
Tyler Perry’s Temptation LG [4.7] 4.1 1.4 52
Place Beyond the Pines Focus 4.0 1.2
The Host OpenRoad [2.5] 2.2 .75 25
The Call Sony 1.7 .56 52

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $104 million total Friday-Sunday, down 4% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 2% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #15 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $104 42 $27.6, Scary Movie V $14.6
2012 $107 Three Stooges $17,Cabin in the Woods $15, Lockout $6
2011 $117 Rio $39, Scream 4 $19, The Conspirator $3
2010 $112 Kick-Ass $20, Death at a Funeral $16
2009 $100 17 Again $24, State of Play $14, Crank: High Voltage $7
Avg 2009-12 $109

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.