Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #34 of 2014 looks like $103 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat below our forecast ($111 million) but still 21% above the norm for this weekend ($86 million).
Opening at 2,907 theaters, If I Stay from Warner Brothers grossed $6.8 million Friday and is on track for a $17.0 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $16.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a basically average three-day average of $5,800 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is soft especially with critics for major outlets (42% positive overall and 21% positive with top critics). If I Stay is headed for $49 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,673 theaters, When the Game Stands Tall from Sony/TriStar grossed $3.0 million Friday and is on track for a $9.5 million opening weekend (hitting our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sub-par average of $3,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (19% positive overall and 25% positive with top critics). When the Game Stands Tall is headed for $23 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,894 theaters, Frank Miller’s Sin City: A Dame to Kill For from Weinstein grossed $2.6 million through Friday and is on track for a $6.0 million opening weekend (nowhere near our $18.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a disastrous three-day average of $2,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (41% positive overall and 35% positive with top critics). The second Sin City is headed for $13 million total domestic.
Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $17.2 million this weekend (down 32% from last weekend and above our $15.3 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Guardians of the Galaxy has been adjusted up slightly to $298 million. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is headed for $16.1 million this weekend (down 44% from last weekend and above our $14.6 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for TMNT has been adjusted to $182 million. Let’s Be Cops is headed for $10.5 million this weekend (down 41% from last weekend and near our $10.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Let’s Be Cops has been adjusted up slightly to $69 million.
| Weekend 34: August 22-24, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | [15.3] | 17.2 | 4.8 | 298 | |
| If I Stay | WB | [16.0] | 17.0 | 6.8 | 49 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | [14.6] | 16.1 | 4.5 | 182 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | [10.1] | 10.5 | 3.2 | 69 | |
| When the Game Stands Tall | Sony | [9.5] | 9.5 | 3.0 | 23 | |
| The Giver | Weins | [6.3] | 7.0 | 2.1 | 39 | |
| Sin City: A Dame to Kill For | Weins | [18.5] | 6.0 | 2.6 | 13 | |
| The Expendables 3 | LG/Sum | [7.2] | 6.5 | 1.9 | 44 | |
| The Hundred-Foot Journey | Dis | [4.9] | 5.6 | 1.6 | 42 | |
| Into the Storm | WB | [3.8] | 3.6 | 1.1 | 44 | |
| Lucy | Uni | [—] | 3.4 | 1.0 | 122 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $103 million total Friday-Sunday, up 21% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 15% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 34 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $103 | If I Stay $17.2, When the Game Stands Tall $9.5, Sin City A Dame to Kill For $6.0 | |
| 2013 | $90 | Mortal Instruments City of Bones $9.3, World’s End $8.8, You’re Next $7.0 | |
| 2012 | $83 | 2016 Obama’s America $6.5, Premium Rush $6.0, Hit and Run $4.5 | |
| 2011 | $75 | Colombiana $10.4, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark $8.5, Our Idiot Brother $7.0 | |
| 2010 | $95 | Vampires Suck $12.2, Lottery Ticket $10.7, Piranha 3D $10.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $86 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
About the Author
