FRIDAY AUGUST 23 Box Office Report: The Butler Disposes of Weak Opening Competition

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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #34 of 2013 looks like an okay $91 million for the top 12 films, even with the average for the same weekend the last few years but up from last year’s comparable weekend.

Opening at 1,548 theaters Friday, The World’s End from Focus/Universal grossed $3.5 million Friday and is on track for a $9.7 million opening weekend (very close to the $9.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,200 per theater for the weekend (slightly above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very strong (91% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a similar 87% with top critics). The World’s End is headed for $36 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,118 theaters Wednesday, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones from Sony grossed $3.1 million Friday and is headed for a $9.3 million opening weekend (below our $12.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a bad three-day average of $2,900 per theater for the weekend. Combined with the $4.7 million from Wednesday-Thursday, Mortal Instruments should total $14 million through Sunday.  Critical sentiment is horrible: 13% positive overall and an identical 13% positive with top critics. Mortal Instruments is headed for $23 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,435 theaters Friday, You’re Next from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $3.0 million Friday and is on track for a $7.6 million opening weekend (below our $9.2 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a bad three-day average of $3,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is solid: 80% positive overall and 78% positive with top critics. You’re Next is headed for $23 million total domestic.

Expanding to 1,237 theaters Friday, Blue Jasmine from Sony Classics and Woody Allen grossed $1.1 million Friday and is pacing toward a $4.0 million opening weekend (under our $5.6 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $3,200 per theater for the weekend. In addition to its four weeks of limited release, the film should total $14 million through Sunday.  Critical sentiment is strong: 90% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 86% positive with top critics. Blue Jasmine is headed for $33 million total domestic.

The final domestic gross estimates for both Lee Daniels’ The Butler and We’re the Millers have been adjusted upward to $97 million and $128 million, respectively.  The Butler is exhibiting signs of extraordinary staying power.  The last seven days (Monday through the end of this weekend) is on pace to total $27 million, more than the first three days ($25 million opening weekend).  Usually it’s a great sign if the first full week matches the opening weekend, while most films decline 10-15% in the first full week from the opening weekend.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.