Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #50 of 2013 looks like $144 million for the top 12 films from Friday-Sunday, not as strong as we had forecast but still up double digits in terms of percent increase over comparable weekends the past several years.
Opening at 3,903 theaters Friday, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug from Warner Brothers grossed $30.8 million Friday and is on track for a $73.9 million opening weekend (below our $82.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $18,900 per theater for the weekend (3.5 times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is positive but not universally supportive (74% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 68% positive with top critics). The Hobbit 2 is headed for maybe $255 million total domestic, below the $303.0 million domestic for The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey last year. We’ll see if there is enough extra overseas money to make Desolation of Smaug a billion dollar worldwide grossing film (as was An Unexpected Journey).
Opening at 2,194 theaters Friday, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $5.7 million Friday and is on track for a $16.1 million opening weekend (way under our $30.0 million forecast and easily the worst opening for a Madea film). The film is pacing toward a slightly above average three-day average of $7,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is predictably chilly (20% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 30% positive with top critics). A Madea Christmas is headed for maybe $45 million total domestic, also the lowest Madea total (see complete historical track below).
Frozen 3D has been adjusted to a $222 million domestic total because of another weekend that is running above forecast.
| Weekend 50: December 13-15, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug | WB | [82.5] | 73.9 | 30.8 | 255 | |
| Frozen 3D | Dis | [20.0] | 24.6 | 5.2 | 222 | |
| Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas | LG/Sum | [30.0] | 16.1 | 5.7 | 45 | |
| Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | [12.5] | 13.8 | 4.1 | 409 | |
| Thor: The Dark World | Dis | [2.5] | 2.9 | .79 | 209 | |
| Out of the Furnace | Rel | [2.5] | 2.4 | .76 | 14 | |
| Delivery Man | Dis | [2.1] | 2.0 | .61 | 34 | |
| Philomena | Weins | [1.6] | 2.0 | .56 | 19 | |
| The Book Thief | Fox | [1.7] | 1.9 | .54 | 20 | |
| Homefront | ORF | [1.8] | 1.8 | .52 | 21 | |
| Dallas Buyers Club | Foc/Uni | [—] | 1.2 | .33 | 20 | |
| Best Man Holiday | Uni | [—] | 1.1 | .33 | 70 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
|
Tyler Perry Madea Films |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend | Domestic Total | Worldwide Total | |||||
| Madea’s Witness Protection | 6.29.2012 | PG13 | 21% | 25.4 | 65.6 | 66.9 | |
| Madea’s Big Happy Family | 4.22.2011 | PG13 | 38% | 25.1 | 53.3 | 54.2 | |
| Madea Goes to Jail | 2.20.2009 | PG13 | 30% | 41.0 | 90.5 | 90.5 | |
| Madea’s Family Reunion | 2.24.2006 | PG13 | 25% | 30.0 | 63.3 | 63.3 | |
Limited Release
American Hustle from Sony opened at 6 theaters Friday and is headed for an amazing $123,000 weekend average per theater.
Saving Mr Banks from Disney opened at 15 theaters Friday and is headed for a more down to Earth but still solid $28,000 weekend average per theater.
Hours with the late Paul Walker opened at 16 theaters and is on track for only $3,400 per theater.
The second weekend for Inside Llewyn Davis is on track to average $21,300 per theater for the weekend at 15 theaters (down from the phenomenal $101,353 average at 4 theaters last weekend).
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $144 million total Friday-Sunday, up 15% from the four-year average for the same weekend and up 11% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 50 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $144 | Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug $73.9, TP’s A Madea Christmas $16.1 | |
| 2012 | $130 | The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $84.6 | |
| 2011 | $110 | Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $39.6, Alvin and Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $23.2, Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol $12.8 | |
| 2010 | $128 | TRON: Legacy $44.0, Yogi Bear $16.4, The Fighter $12.1 | |
| 2009 | $130 | Avatar $77.0 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $124 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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