December 29, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #52 is on pace for a solid $166 million thanks to three movies at or near $30 million for the Friday-Sunday period.  However, the two big openers are not living up to the promise of their initial Christmas Day grosses.  Les Miserables opened with $18.1 million Tuesday (a strong #1 for the day) and then slid to $12.2 million Wednesday and $9.2 million Thursday (#2 both days).  It only popped up slightly on its first Friday: $9.4 million, falling into third place for the day behind Django Unchained.

Django Unchained had a similar trajectory Tuesday-Thursday: $15.1 million Christmas Day, $10.0 million Wednesday, and $8.3 million Thursday.  However, the Quentin Tarantino revenge flick had a more normal Friday performance, jumping 16% from Thursday to $9.7 million. 

Meanwhile, The Hobbit just rolls on, down only 12% from last weekend if the $32.5 million weekend estimate holds.

For additional analysis of the overall box office for this holiday movie season, look for the Holiday Movie Season column later this morning.

Weekend 52: December 28-30, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Hobbit WB [32.3] 32.5 10.7 295
Django Unchained Weins [40.5] 29.0 9.7 155
Les Miserables Uni [50.5] 28.6 9.4 145
Parental Guidance Fox [13.0] 14.8 5.1 75
Jack Reacher Par [13.3] 13.8 4.5 95
This Is 40 Uni [12.7] 12.8 4.1 85
Lincoln Dis [6.5] 7.5 2.4 150
The Guilt Trip Par [5.8] 6.7 2.2 50
Monsters, Inc. 3D Dis [6.0] 6.6 2.3 50
Rise of the Guardians Par/DW [4.7] 5.2 1.8 115
Skyfall Sony [4.5] 4.6 1.5 305
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [3.0] 4.1 1.3 70
Life of Pi Fox [4.3] 3.7 1.2 105

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.  The predictions for Les Miserables and Django Unchained were clearly way off, although the other films were closer to the normal track record.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $166 million total Friday-Sunday, up 6% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 19% from the weak same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #52 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $166 Les Miserables $28.6, Django Unchained $29, Parental Guidance $14.8
2011 $140 no releases
2010 $149 no releases
2009 $209 no releases
2008 $131 no releases
Avg 2008-11 $157

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.